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Sixers are a 4.5-Point Underdog for Season Opener in Boston
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Like it or not, Philadelphia 76ers basketball is back!
There’s a hopeless amount of optimism on social media, and in my own brain, about what the 2025-26 edition of the Sixers can produce.
However, here’s the reality. They are still a 4.5-point underdog at BetMGM against the Jayson Tatum-less Celtics for Wednesday’s season opener:
Joel Embiid is expected to play, but what version of the big man shows up is anybody’s guess. Paul George and Jared McCain are listed as out, so it’s the Embiid and Tyrese Maxey show against Jaylen Brown and the Celtics.
VJ Edgecombe and Kelly Oubre Jr. are going to be key pieces all season, but with George and McCain out, they’re even more vital for the Sixers to put a competent product on the floor and potentially cash the money line, which sits at +150 at bet365.
I think we’ll find out pretty quickly what version of Embiid is available. If the good-to-great version is on the floor, then it has to be a heavy Embiid night against a Boston frontcourt with Neemias Queta, Luka Garza, Sam Hauser, and Chris Boucher in it. Embiid would all four of them for lunch, so the matchup is there for the former NBA MVP to take over.
Embiid’s points prop sits at Over/Under 24.5 at bet365. His rebound prop sits at Over/Under 8.5. Both of those numbers are tasty if we get 25-30 minutes of Embiid down low.
I wouldn’t go too crazy on the alternate prop market because we simply don’t know what shape Embiid is in, but I think it’s reasonable that he can put up 25 points against an average frontcourt at 70-75 percent.
It’s probably going to be a role player night by pure necessity. If that’s the case, two props stands out: Edgecombe Over 10.5 points and Kelly Oubre Over 5.5 rebounds.
The best hope for the Sixers is that Edgecombe adjusts quickly, and with McCain out, there’s room for him to take over as another perimeter scorer to take over next to Maxey.
If I coached the Celtics, I would put a ton of pressure on Maxey all night and force the supporting cast and Embiid to beat the team. The minutes will be there for Edgecombe, so I think that’s worth a flier instead of banking on Quentin Grimes across less playing time.
Oubre’s rebound prop was wildly popular when Embiid was hurt last season, and while Embiid and Adem Bona will grab the bulk of the boards, the Sixers are playing a Celtics team that loves to chuck threes. I think there will be more long rebounding opportunities. It’s also worth noting that Tatum is one of Boston’s better rebounders. I could see a few effort plays from Oubre turning into boards over Queta and the rest of the Boston big men.
BetMGM has a 33 percent odds boost token available, which I would use on Edgecombe’s points over since the over on Oubre’s rebounds is already a plus-money prop, or close to it.
bet365 is offering a 50 percent boost on SGPs for Wednesday’s slate. I’d go Edgecombe o10.5 points, Oubre o5.5 rebounds, Embiid 20+ points and Payton Pritchard o2.5 threes to get to +600 before the boost is applied.
Boston is going to hit threes. The Celtics shoot enough to the point where some of the shots from deep have to go down. Pritchard is one of their best shooters and he’ll get a workload increase while Tatum is out, so why not add that? I’m putting Embiid 20 points in there instead of 25 to lowball his performance just in case he struggles. He should still put up decent numbers in this matchup.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.