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Sixers Up to 3.5-Point Favorite Against Visiting Warriors
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors march into Xfinity Mobile Arena on Thursday night.
Tyrese Maxey and the Sixers are a -3.5 favorite at BetMGM, a line that moved up a point from where it was this morning.
The daily chore of figuring out who is actually playing for the Sixers presents us with a questionable Joel Embiid and Quentin Grimes, as well as a ruled out Paul George. Jimmy Butler is questionable for his latest return to Philadelphia, while Draymond Green is probable to do something that pisses off the crowd before halftime.
Embiid played 30 minutes in the double-overtime win over the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday. I’d imagine he’ll play between 20-25 minutes again if suited up.
Having as many big men available as possible could be viewed as a positive or negative against the Warriors. Golden State gives up the eighth-most rebounds per game and doesn’t have a traditional big man. Green or Jonathan Kuminga could get the bulk of the minutes in the “center” position.
That means either 1) Embiid and Andre Drummond will feast or 2) Golden State’s smaller lineups make the Sixers centers less effective and the Sixers go with a smaller-ish lineup to counter.
In either scenario, I’d actually target one of the Sixers’ smaller guys for a rebound prop, specifically VJ Edgecombe.
The No. 3 overall pick is averaging 5.8 rebounds per game in his rookie season. He had six or more rebounds in five of his last six games. Embiid’s presence obviously affects his numbers, but with George out, there’s a larger chance of Edgecombe being one of the best rebounders in the Sixers lineup.
I’d strongly consider Edgecombe’s Over 4.5 rebounds prop at bet365. I’d even attack his Over 7.5 assists and rebounds. He’s had multiple assists in every game this season, and all you really need here is for him to match his season averages of 5.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game for the A/R prop to hit easily.
Looking at PA betting promos, and NJ sportsbook promos, bet365 has a 50 percent NBA Super Boost available for Thursday’s game.
I’d roll with Edgecombe o7.5 A/R, Jared McCain 10+ points (10+ in four of the last five), Jimmy Butler 20+ points (he scored 30 last year against the Sixers and he’s Golden State’s top scoring threat without Curry), and Tyrese Maxey 25+ points (DUH) to get you to +375 before the boost.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.