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Somebody is Reaching the 40-Point Mark as Flyers Find Themselves a Slight Underdog in Montreal
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Flyers can reach the 40-point mark on Tuesday night in Montreal.
Thirty-eight points over 31 games is a solid pace, especially when you consider the Flyers are just six points off the Eastern Conference-leading Carolina Hurricanes.
The entire conference is separated by 12 points as we barrel toward the holiday period, which is an important stretch for the Flyers to battle through.
On Tuesday, they’re a +105 money line underdog at BetMGM against the Canadiens, who can also reach the 40-point mark with a win.
The five-game stretch in the next seven days, starting with the trip to Quebec, presents the Flyers with a handful of winnable games against the Canadiens, Sabres, Canucks, and Blackhawks. The Rangers game is a Saturday matinee at MSG.
Again, it’s important to get out of this five-game block with a positive record because the ubiquitous “Disney On Ice” west coast road trip looms after Christmas.
The game itself presents a trend we’ve seen with multiple recent Flyers opponents. Montreal allowed four or more goals in each of their last five losses dating back to November 29th. The Canadiens held their opponents to one or two goals in the four wins during that span.
The Flyers have shifted more toward unders in the last five games with four of the last five featuring five goals or fewer. The last three Flyers games went to overtime as well. The game to go to overtime is +400 at bet365, with a shootout at +850.
There’s only one big statistical outlier between the two teams defensively. Montreal’s allowed the third-most shots on goal to centers over the last 10 games.
Sean Couturier and Noah Cates aren’t the Flyers’ most frequent rippers of puck, but they fit the trend. Cates’ SOG prop is 1.5 at bet365, as is Couturier’s. Cates has 15 SOG in December compared to eight for Coots, so I’d take a shot at Cates o1.5 SOG at +105.
The Canadiens have also allowed the sixth-most goals to left wingers and third-most goals to D-men. Trevor Zegras, who is on a three-game scoring streak, is the best fit for that trend. Zegras is +210 to score at bet365.
If you want to get weird with Pennsylvania sports betting, Flyers ML, Flyers TT o3.5, Cates o1.5 SOG, and Zegras goal gets you to +1150 at bet365.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.