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The 3 Best Player Props for Braves vs. Phillies (April 1, 2021)

By Bob Wankel

Published: Apr 1st, 2021 · 8:07 AM EDT

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Baseball is finally back and fans will be in the stands at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday afternoon as the Phillies and Braves get the 2021 season underway.

Let’s take a look at some interesting Braves vs. Phillies player prop picks for this Opening Day matchup.

Pitching is expected to dominate this matchup as two of the National League’s best pitchers will go head-to-head in this one.

Phillies vs. Braves Player Props

Max Fried, who is looking to back up a lights-out 2020 season in which he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, gets the call for Atlanta. He will be opposed by Phillies ace Aaron Nola. Last season, the 27-year-old compiled a 5-5 record with a stellar 3.26 ERA.

Both pitchers will have to navigate loaded lineups that finished among baseball’s best in terms of run production a year ago.

The Braves scored the second-most runs per game (5.62) in 2020, while the Phillies generated the fifth-most runs (5.10). There’s no reason to think both lineups won’t be equally effective this season.

Click here to get 100-1 odds on the Phillies to record 1+ hit in any game during the month of April at DraftKings Sportsbook.

J.T. Realmuto to Homer (+500)

In two starts against the Phillies last season, Fried posted a stellar 0.90 ERA. He allowed just one run over 10 innings of work, but he had to work to do it.

The Phillies produced nine hits and three walks in those 10 innings, and they come into this matchup with a number of right-handed hitters capable of doing damage in Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto.

But the focus of our first pick is Realmuto, who has had notable success against Fried throughout his career. In 18 career at-bats against the lefty, Realmuto is a strong 7-for-18 with four extra-base hits and two homers, compiling a 1.257 OPS.

Realmuto has also been a fast starter throughout his career, going 101-for-336 (.301 BA) in 92 career April games.

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As Realmuto now gets to play in front of the fans who unrelentingly demanded the Phillies “Sign J.T.!” over the last year, we think he pays them back with a thank you at the plate on Opening Day.

J.T. Realmuto homers (13) on a fly ball to left off Max Fried
Exit Velocity 92 MPH
Distance 352 FT
Launch Angle 33.78#ChopOn vs #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/lCTxzjlc32

— Strand Sport Stats (@StrandStats) July 28, 2019

Ronald Acuna to Homer (+375)

If you’re dying to back a Braves prop today, I may not be going out on a limb with an under the radar player in Ronald Acuna, but he’s my guy in this spot.

Aaron Nola was lights-out in his lone home start against the Braves last season. His line:

8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

He followed that effort up less than two weeks with a mess of a s start that didn’t last three full innings. The guess here is that Nola, who has had success against most of this Braves lineup, will look more like the guy in that first start today.

That being said, Acuna, my National League MVP pick, has been dialed in against him. He’s 7-for-22 with a double, two homers, and a 1.101 OPS.

We will take plus odds on him to go deep today.

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Phillies Future Player Prop: Bryce Harper OVER 108.5 RBI (DraftKings)

The standard form of these prop picks posts will include three game-specific predictions, but since its Opening Day and the season-long markets are fresh, let’s sub in one for our final pick today.

There’s several ways to bet on or against Bryce Harper this season. Personally, I’m a believer that he’s poised to deliver his best season in a Phillies uniform this year. Over plays on his homer total (36.5) will draw plenty of action, but I’m turning my attention to a more team-oriented market.

DraftKings lists Harper at O/U 108.5 RBI and I think this is a number that he can clear with relative ease. Of course, that claim comes with the disclaimer that he has to stay healthy.

Another year removed from his ACL injury, Andrew McCutchen looked like a different player this spring. Meanwhile, the inconsistencies of Rhys Hoskins’ power stroke don’t typically impact his outstanding on-base skills. That gives the Phillies two players who can consistently set the table for Harper.

With J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm providing protection behind Harper, opposing pitchers will have to attack him more than they would probably like. As noted above, the Phillies were baseball’s fifth-best scoring offense a season ago, so this is a team that score runs in bunches and Harper is player that can bring them home in bunches.

Two seasons ago, he produced a career-best 114 RBI, and there’s no reason to think he can’t match or surpass that number as part of what should be a better lineup this season.