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The Cowboys are Only a 3.5-Point Home Favorite Against Kyler Murray-Less Cardinals
By Joe Tansey
Published:
We all know the Cowboys are down bad.
But just how bad? Well, the Cowboys are just a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM against the Kyler Murray-less Arizona Cardinals. Yup, that’s right, the mighty Cowboys are a small favorite at JerryWorld against JACOBY BRISSETT.
Brissett’s always been a respectable backup quarterback, but if you think you’re a playoff contender, the odds simply aren’t this small for a matchup of this caliber.
Dallas is mainly down bad because of its atrocious defense. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most total yards in the NFL. They’ve allowed 6.2 yards per play, 20 passing touchdowns, and 10 rushing touchdowns, so it isn’t just one area in which they’re getting killed.
I’m not here to wax poetic about the Cardinals either. This is a 2-5 team that’s allowed over 300 total yards in six of seven games. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a bit of an overall disappointment and they’re down to Brissett and at least their third-string running back.
So, yeah, there are plenty of good reasons why the Over/Under sits at 54 at bet365 and most NJ and PA sports betting apps.
It’s probably best to fire off a few shots at player props during your Cowboys hate watch, and while I kind of poo-pooed Brissett a bit, he’s still capable of beating the Cowboys.
Fifteen of the touchdowns the Cowboys allowed have come against wide receivers, which obviously puts Harrison in a spot to thrive. Tight end Trey McBride is basically a wide receiver as well. McBride leads the Cardinals in all stat categories.
McBride’s props sit at Over/Under 6.5 receptions and O/U 69.5 receiving yards. Harrison’s numbers are O/U 3.5 receptions and O/U 56.5 receiving yards.
I’d actually hammer the Harrison over 3.5 receptions. If there was ever a game for him to break out and change the national perception of him a bit, this is the matchup for him.
A “Fade the Cowboys” SGP of McBride 50+ receiving yards, Harrison 50+ receiving yards, and Harrison o3.5 receptions gets you to +155 before bet365’s 50 percent SGP boost is applied.
If you want to add Cowboys players, most notably CeeDee Lamb, there’s an opportunity to really take advantage of the poor defenses. Lamb has three 100-yard performances, plus a 74-yard showing in the four games he’s completed in 2025. I’d add Lamb 70+ receiving yards to the Cardinals SGP to get you to +275.
Since the game has a high Over/Under, there’s a chance some random touchdown scorers pop up. Jalen Tolbert, Dallas’ No. 3 wide out who caught a TD last week, sits at +550. Michael Wilson had seven catches on nine targets and 84 yards in the last two games Brissett started for the Cardinals. Wilson is +250 to score.
If you really want to get crazy, Javonte Williams, McBride, Wilson, and Tolbert to score pays out at a cool +5500 at bet365.
Kinkead: feels gross, but I’m taking Dallas moneyline straight up at -175
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.