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The Odds are… Well They’re Really Bleak for the Phillies
By Joe Tansey
Published:
I don’t mean to pile on here to the doom and gloom, but I’m merely the messenger of the odds today.
The Phillies have gone from World Series favorite at the start of the MLB postseason to the team with the second-worst odds to win it.
The Phils are +2800 to win the Fall Classic, +1500 to win the National League pennant, and +800 to win the NLDS series with the Dodgers at bet365.
Okay, so I know I just stated the obvious, but there are some odds out there that are worth looking at with Game 3 on the horizon on Wednesday night.
I’m mainly focused on the series-specific markets still in play.
After two games, only Teoscar Hernandez and J.T. Realmuto have three hits in the Dodgers/Phillies series. Hernandez owns the lone home run from the two games at Citizens Bank Park.
You can wager on players to lead the series in hits and home runs at bet365, which might be a way to soften the blow monetarily if the Phils’ season goes up in flames in Los Angeles on Wednesday night.
Realmuto is +320 to lead the series in hits. He’s got three base knocks series and he got a hit off Yoshinobu Yamamoto back in April in Philly, a game the Phils actually won.
Hernandez is historically a worse hitter versus right-handed pitching, which he will see out of the gates on Wednesday with Aaron Nola, so he could relinquish his series hits lead. Max Kepler and Freddie Freeman have two hits each. No one else has multiple hits in the series.
As wild as it would’ve sounded months ago, Kepler might just lead the Phils in hits in a playoff series. He’ll likely get the start against the righty in Game 3. He’s got a hit in both games, so why not sprinkle him at +1600 to lead the series in hits?
If the series progresses to Game 4, Kepler will face another righty in Tyler Glasnow, so there’s no worry about the futures bet dying due to the lack of plate appearances.
It’s more difficult to pinpoint if a Phillies player can lead the series in home runs because Yamamoto allowed a single long ball in his last six starts. You’re basically relying on a high pitch count for Yamamoto to get to the Dodgers bullpen early in order for the Phils’ best home run hitters to cash on this prop.
Kyle Schwarber is +750 and Bryce Harper is +1400 to lead the series in home runs. Neither player has shown much in the power department yet, so I don’t know if you can justify more than a few dollars on that prop.
If you’re one of the rare fans with hope left in their bodies, the Over 4.5 games in the series sits at +375 at bet365. That’s the same price as the Phillies +1.5 on the series spread.
Nothing from the first two games, except maybe the bottom of the ninth in Game 2, suggests the series will return to Philly, but if you’re a dreamer, those are the props to take a look at. Otherwise, it’s a PA online casinos and NJ online casinos type of week.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.