Ad Disclosure
The Phillies are Wednesday’s Largest MLB Underdog
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies are the largest underdog on the four-game MLB board at bet365.
Not exactly the best sign for Wednesday night’s Game 3, but I think we’re all aware of the reality facing the Phils at the moment.
I can already sense that we’ll be picking apart Rob Thomson’s decision to start Aaron Nola over Ranger Suarez. Nola’s presence as the starter in the matchup versus Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the primary reason the Phils are +160 to win Game 3:
Allow me to take the Posidelphia spin on this for a paragraph or two.
Nola’s last outing was his best of the season. He struck out nine Twins and allowed two hits over eight innings. Yes, I know the Twins were waiting to hop on the plane from PHL to Cancun, but that type of outing can still do wonders for a pitcher’s confidence, especially Nola, who allowed 17 earned runs in 30.1 September innings.
We witnessed flashes of the good Nola in the postseason in 2023, when he pitched seven scoreless innings against the Marlins and six scoreless frames versus the Diamondbacks.
The good version of Nola is still somewhere in there. Maybe getting the best of Nola in three or four innings is the right move, or maybe he surprises us and goes toe-to-toe with Yamamoto and somehow preserves Ranger for Game 4.
Thomson said Suarez will pitch after Nola, but didn’t specify what the plan would be. I’d imagine Nola gets a shot to at least go one time through the Dodgers order and then Suarez comes in the second any danger pops up.
That’s why Nola’s props on PA and New Jersey sports betting apps are so low for Game 3. His outs recorded total is Over/Under 8.5 and he has a strikeout prop of Over/Under 2.5 at BetMGM.
I’d be willing to use BetMGM’s Odds Boost Token on the Over 8.5 outs. A three-inning outing without any runs allowed has to be the minimum expectation. After that, there has to be a short leash with Suarez ready to come in at any point.
All of this talk about a star performance from Nola, or a Nola/Suarez combined strong outing doesn’t mean anything if the Phillies lineup can’t put something together against Yamamoto.
Yamamoto struck out nine in 6.2 innings in the wild-card round against the Reds. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since August 18th.
But there is a way to crack the Dodgers’ Game 3 starter: Drawing walks. Yamamoto walked two Reds in the wild-card round and he’s walked 10 batters across his last three starts. Yamamoto’s Over 1.5 walks allowed is -160 at bet365.
The Phillies drew four walks against Blake Snell. They didn’t do anything with it, but they displayed enough patience at the plate to put runners on base. That’s the goal here. Get runners on base at all costs to chase Yamamoto and pick apart the weaknesses in the Dodgers bullpen. To that point, I would look into Yamamoto’s Under 17.5 outs recorded at +125. LA’s bullpen is fresh, and if his pitch count gets high, Dave Roberts might be more willing to pull him early.
For bet365’s 30 percent SGP boost, I’d get a little creative. Nola o8.5 outs recorded, Yamamoto o1.5 walks allowed, and the First Three Innings Under 2.5 gets you to +325 before the boost.
The Phils have to keep this a low-scoring game, and the First Three Innings Under goes in line with what I said about Nola at least giving it all for one trip through the order.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.