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Thunder vs. Pacers: A Look at the NBA Finals Game 1 Odds and Trends
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The NBA Finals opens up on Thursday with a whopping 9.5-point spread in favor of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
OKC is the better team on paper and has the MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. There’s also a small trend that supporting the thought that it could be an ugly night for the Indiana Pacers.
OKC is 2-1 in Game 1s this postseason. The two wins were by scores of 131-80 and 114-88. Seven of OKC’s 12 postseason wins were by double digits, and the Thunder held the opponent under 100 points in four of those wins.
A trend does have to give, though, since the Pacers are 3-0 in series openers this postseason. They won outright as underdogs in the last two Game 1s and they are 2-1 to the over in those openers.
Indiana probably isn’t winning the series with its defense. The Pacers are giving up 113.3 points per game in the playoffs, while OKC’s defense allowed seven fewer points per contest.
The two teams are similar because they each have a lockdown defender in Lu Dort and Andrew Nembhard. Nembhard will likely be the primary defender on SGA, while Dort should get the Tyrese Haliburton assignment.
Haliburton has eight games with 20 points or less through three rounds, including a meager eight-point showing in Game 5 against the New York Knicks. That’s one factor into why his point prop sits at over/under 17.5 at bet365.
On the other hand, Gilgeous-Alexander got into the 30s in nine of his last 12 games. His points over/under is 33.5, a whole 11 points more than the next highest point prop on the board. SGA is the better player to wager on because he’s proved to be more consistent than Haliburton.
However, there is another angle to explore, especially if you believe the best defenders on each team have success. Jalen Williams and Pascal Siakam are the clear No. 2s in each offense and they have far more manageable props to work with.
Siakam is coming off a series in which he eclipsed the 30-point mark on three occasions. He had a 22-point double-double and was one board shy of a double-double in the two regular-season clashes with the Thunder.
Williams averaged over 22 points per game in two of OKC’s three series and had at least 16 points in every Game 1 so far.
I think you can make a case to put together Siakam and Williams’ point props together with assists from SGA and Haliburton. They can still create shots even if they aren’t getting great looks.
Siakam and Williams to have 20+ points and Haliburton and SGA to have 5+ assists gets you to +220 at bet365, who has a Safety Net Bet available for Game 1. You’ll get a slew of boosts and promos to use on PA sports betting apps and NJ betting apps through the Finals.
BetMGM also has a No Sweat Token for Thursday’s series opener. If you want to increase the assists from 5 to 7, you get can the SGP odds at +290.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.