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Unbeaten Eagles Return Home a 3.5-Point Favorite Against Broncos
By Joe Tansey
Published:
There’s been a lot of criticism surrounding the Eagles, despite the 4-0 record.
One thing you can’t criticize is that the Birds are cashing as a favorite. They’re 3-1 against the spread going into Sunday’s home clash with the Denver Broncos, where they are a 3.5-point favorite at ESPN Bet:
It’s a weird kind of sandwich spot for the Birds coming off the trip to Tampa and with the Thursday night clash against the New York Giants ahead, but the numbers suggest the Birds are in good shape to keep rolling.
The Eagles scored at least 20 points in each of their four games. That’s important on Sunday because the Broncos have allowed 29 and 23 points in their two road contests this season versus the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers.
The Broncos also allowed 473 and 376 total yards in those games. That’s a stark difference from the two concessions of under 200 total yards at home, albeit those games were against the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals.
The real version of the Broncos is probably somewhere in the middle of those numbers, but it’s notable how poorly the Broncos have performed on the road in a two-game sample size.
Two stats do stand out while looking at the Broncos that should affect how you bet the Eagles player props on Sunday. The Broncos have allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers recorded a single touchdown against Denver through four weeks.
It’s not going to be an A.J. Brown break-the-narrative day, especially with Patrick Surtain on the other side of the field. Ja’Marr Chase was just held to 23 yards on five catches on Monday night.
Denver can be exploited by tight ends, though. Tyler Warren had four catches for 79 yards against the Broncos in Week 2 and LA’s Oronde Gadsden II had five receptions for 46 yards in Week 3.
Dallas Goedert, who has been limited at practice this week, would be the ideal fit for this matchup, but we won’t know his full injury status until Friday afternoon, which is why his props aren’t up yet. If Brown will be covered by Surtain, I think you have to buy low on DeVonta Smith at Over 46.5 receiving yards. He’s gone over that number twice this season. I also wouldn’t mind playing Smith at +250 to score a touchdown.
Elsewhere on PA and New Jersey sports betting apps, I would take one stab at a Denver player prop. Rookie running back RJ Harvey had 98 total yards on Monday night. He’ll play a bigger role on Sunday, especially if the Broncos are trailing. I’d take Over 47.5 rushing/receiving yards for Harvey.
I wouldn’t blame you, though, if you just took the Eagles straight up at -3.5. If you want to get a little frisky: Phillies to win Game 1 and Eagles ML pays out at +172 at ESPN Bet.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.