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Unbeaten in Nine Games, Union Only -105 Against One of the Worst MLS Teams
By Joe Tansey
Published:
While we’ve been arguing about the Tush Push and the Phillies, the Union put together a 30-point start across their first 15 MLS games.
Additionally, the Union have been making bettors a good amount of money, and they should again on Wednesday night in Toronto while the postponed Phils prepare for a Thursday doubleheader.
The Union are only a -105 money line favorite, which may turn you away because they’re in first and Toronto is 17 points behind, in 14th place, but it’s normal for road teams to have shorter money line numbers in MLS.
Here’s the stat that should make you feel more confident in The U:
They are 7-0 with a +12 goal differential against teams currently outside of playoff positions in both conferences. A handful of shutouts are mixed in there as well.
Toronto only has one home win this season. The crazier stat is that the Canadian side only has four goals in eight home games. I mean, that’s just pitiful, even by MLS standards.
So, yeah, the Union money line looks to be a surefire bet.
The Union money line has been a pretty good bet, but the over 2.5 goals has been even more profitable. The Union themselves have three or four goals in seven games across all competitions. The over has hit 11 times across 15 MLS contests and two games in the U.S. Open Cup.
Manager Bradley Carnell is most likely going to use some squad rotation since this is the Union’s eighth game of the month, so I’d wait until lineups are released an hour before kickoff to go deep into player props.
Toronto’s allowed at least five shots on target in each of its last five games. TFC’s also allowed 14 or more shots in four of the last five.
I’d look into whomever the striker pairing is for shots props on New Jersey sports betting apps, or PA apps. Certain books also have team shots on goal, which is a good bet in this case given how many attempts Toronto’s given up.
If that’s not your thing, a Union ML/Over 2.5 goals parlay gets you to +180 at Bet365.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.