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We Get to Bet the Phillies Against Baseball’s Worst Starter on Tuesday
By Joe Tansey
Published:
If you thought fading the Rockies was fun on Monday night, just wait until you see the Phillies’ matchup on Tuesday.
The Phils are a -290 favorite behind Jesus Luzardo against Antonio Senzatela, who I’d argue is the worst starting pitcher in the majors right now.
Senzatela comes into Tuesday with a 6.39 ERA, nine home runs allowed, and a .381 batting average against.
This is the friendliest matchup the Phillies lineup may get for the rest of the season.
Senzatela’s allowed at least six hits in every one of his starts, and, in fact, he’s let up eight or more hits on seven occasions, including the 10 he allowed versus the Phillies back in April at Citizens Bank Park.
In that game, eight of the nine Phillies in the order recorded at least one hit. J.T. Realmuto had three hits, Bryce Harper had two, and six others had a hit each.
Harper and Trea Turner are the hitters to target from a historical standpoint versus Senzatela. Harper has two home runs in 15 at-bats versus the right-hander and Turner owns a .467 batting average in 15 at-bats.
Turner was the most consistent bat in the lineup on Monday night, and while the prices are high compared to the normal rate, you have to go back to the leadoff man because of the matchup.
Two of Turner’s six games that featured three or four hits this season have come against Colorado. He had nine total bases across those games, so it’s easier to justify betting him to have over 1.5 total bases at -135 at Bet365.
Hell, with the run Turner is in and the matchup in front of him, it’s worth locking him in at +575 to hit a home run. I mean, that seems like a steal at Coors Field.
Only Harper and Kyle Schwarber have home run prices under +300, so there’s room to have fun with some SGPs if you want to.
As for Luzardo, I’d look for similar numbers to what Cristopher Sanchez produced on Monday night. Sanchez fanned seven Rockies to cruise over his strikeout prop. Luzardo’s strikeout prop is also over/under 5.5. That’s a very favorable way to go, as is the batter strikeout props for the Rockies, as I mentioned Monday.
It’s easy to keep it simple with Turner o1.5 total bases, Luzardo o5.5 Ks, and the Phillies money line. If you want to add more to that SGP, and have a boost from NJ sportsbook promos or PA betting promos, go ahead, but that should be the base for any bets on Tuesday night.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.