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Well at Least We Can Bet the Over in the Cubs/Phillies Series Finale
By Joe Tansey
Published:
At least we can have fun betting the over in Wednesday’s Phillies game.
Let’s be honest, the outlook doesn’t look great after the concession of eight runs on Tuesday night and Jesus Luzardo’s current form. Luzardo allowed 30 hits and 23 earned runs over his last three starts.
Is there a small chance he corrects everything and reverts back to his early-season form? Sure, but with the way the Phillies are going at the moment it certainly doesn’t seem likely.
The good news, though, is that Cubs starter Ben Brown hasn’t been great on the road. He allowed seven or more hits in each of his last three road appearances. He let up 16 earned runs in those starts.
So, yeah, the over 9 is absolutely in play.
The best targets are Cubs righties against Luzardo and Phillies lefties versus Brown. Righties have a .309 batting average against Luzardo, while lefties have a .292 BA against Brown. Right-handers are also hitting .261 against Brown. That’s a better split than the .200 BA for lefties against Luzardo.
Frankly, with the slump Kyle Schwarber is in, it’s probably best to target the right-handed bats at the top of the Phillies order for player props.
Alec Bohm has five hits in the series, Nick Castellanos has four base knocks, and Trea Turner has a hit in each game. More importantly, those three guys are putting the ball in play. There’s three strikeouts in 26 at-bats between the three of them in the series.
If you just want to bet Phils players, I’d go for a Turner/Bohm/Castellanos hit Same Game Parlay. That pays out at +140 before the 30 percent profit boost available at bet365. The total bases SGP sits at +800.
I think it’s also worth exploring the Singles market for those three players with Pennsylvania sports betting. All of them are listed between -110 and -140 to record a single. The Phils aren’t hitting homers at the moment, but they are putting the ball in play.
If you’re willing to expand your bets to the Cubs, I’d go with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki to combine with Bohm and Castellanos to record a hit. That gets you to +275.
BetMGM has a No Sweat Home Token available that I would use on Suzuki. Luzardo’s allowed four home runs in his last three starts and Suzuki owns a .323 batting average and 1.145 OPS against left-handed pitching this year.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.