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How Big of a Threat is Paul Skenes to Zack Wheeler’s NL Cy Young Bid?
By Joe Tansey
Published:
One of the bad things about the weekend series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates is that we don’t get to see Zack Wheeler, Paul Skenes or a battle between the two pitchers.
Skenes and Wheeler are two of the top three pitchers in the NL Cy Young odds along with Atlanta’s Chris Sale as Major League Baseball opens up the business end of the season.
It’s a blessing and a curse that the Phillies do not see Skenes this weekend, right?
On one end, the Phils do not have to face the best pitcher on their opponents’ roster, but also it would’ve been nice to face a test like that out of the All-Star break to potentially send a message across the majors.
Back to the Cy Young conversation, though. Skenes has skyrocketed up the odds board in recent weeks to a spot where you could realistically make the case for him to win the award. He’s hovering in the +500 ballpark range on NJ sports betting apps.
Now this isn’t the All-Star Game starter conversation where it was the right thing to start Skenes. Showcase your best up-and-coming star on the national stage. Well done, everyone involved.
Skenes’ 6-0 record, 89 strikeouts and 1.90 ERA are more than impressive for a rookie. Usually most rookies have a strong string of results and then they get found out by the more experienced players and plateau.
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft has not reached that point yet, and based off what we’ve seen so far, he’s got the stuff to overpower anybody who steps in the batters’ box.
So sure he’s more than deserving of being in the conversation, but he’s also pitched 50-60 fewer innings than both Wheeler and Sale.
Wheeler has a 10-4 record, 2.70 ERA and 126 strikeouts in 116.2 innings pitched. Sale is 13-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 110 innings pitched.
Wheeler and Sale are veterans of the game and know how to manage themselves throughout a season so that they don’t burn out come September. Nothing suggests either player will burn out yet.
Skenes has never pitched a 100-inning season at the professional level yet, and depending on Pittsburgh’s status in the wild-card race, he may be managed a bit differently than a normal 10-year veteran.
Pittsburgh is currently 1.5 games back of the final NL wild-card spot and if it competes with the Phillies this weekend there should at least be an urgency to improve the roster at the trade deadline.
The Pirates play the Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros before July ends. That’s a make-or-break stretch for their season that could bury them deeper into the murky waters of the wild-card race.
In terms of betting value, it’s all gone when it comes to Skenes. The time to buy in on his Cy Young odds was probably after his first start.
How much more ground he makes up on Wheeler and Sale is debatable if the two favorites continue at their current clip.
It’s at least a fun discussion to have because he’s pitching so well, but getting to this point and eclipsing two of the most consistent baseball players are two completely different achievements.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.