Phillies

If You Wanna Crown the Marlins, then Crown Their Ass

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Oct 2nd, 2023 · 3:17 PM EDT

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Sick of seeing shit like this:

“The Marlins gave the Phillies fits in 2023. Miami won the season series, 7-6, en route to their unexpected arrival in the postseason. They forged ahead despite injuries to top pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez. The trio of Jesús Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA), Edward Cabrera (7-7, 4.24 ERA) and Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA) provides rookie manager Skip Schumaker with a solid option for each potential game at Citizens Bank Park. The midseason acquisition of infielders Josh Bell and Jake Burger lengthened a lineup that mostly relied upon infielder Luis Arraez and outfielder Jorge Soler.”

That’s from The Athletic’s Phillies/Marlins series preview. All due respect to the writers and the Fish, but wouldn’t say they gave the Phillies “fits” this year. Yeah sure, Miami won the season series, but you have people out here acting like 7-6 is some lopsided number. It literally can’t get any closer.

Here’s how those games turned out:

• 4/10 (home): 15-3 win
• 4/11 (home): 8-4 loss
• 4/12 (home): 3-2 loss in 10 innings
• 7/7 (road): 4-3 win
• 7/8 (road): 5-3 loss
• 7/9 (road): 7-3 loss
• 7/31 (road): 4-2 win
• 8/1 (road): 3-1 win
• 8/2 (road): 9-8 loss in 12 innings (the Trea Turner pre-ovation game)
• 8/3 (road): 4-2 win
• 9/8 (home): 3-2 loss
• 9/9 (home): 8-4 win
• 9/10 (home): 5-4 loss

64 Phillies runs and 55 Marlins runs. Four of the seven losses to Miami were one-run games. Two went to extra innings. The August 2nd loss was the Trea Turner error that served as a precursor for the standing ovation and season turnaround.

Meantime, the Phillies won two of their six against Miami by 4+ runs and went 4-3 over the last two series, which probably should have been 5-2 with a four-game road sweep, if we’re being honest. Miami has the worst run differential among all of the postseason teams (-56) and it’s not even particularly close. They got here by going 33-13 in one-run games.

Say what you will about the 2-4 home record against the Fish this year, but this is the postseason. It’s Citizens Bank Park. The atmosphere is unmatched and this Phillies squad is returning most of the group that went to the World Series last season. Miami has a grand total of one playoff appearance since Dontrelle Willis’ rookie year and nobody really counts the COVID season for much of anything anyway. The Phils have the advantage when it comes to all of the intangible things you need.

That’s not to downplay the presence of Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, who are 4-0 against the Phillies this year, but let’s pump the brakes before we crown these two the next Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. Luzardo allowed 12 hits in 12 innings vs. Philly this season, but bagged wins both times, once partly because Luis Arraez hit for the cycle and once because Aaron Nola threw a road stinker in July. Garrett pitched in the 12 inning debacle and then logged his second W in a game where Ranger Suarez shipped three runs in the first winning.

Both guys are good pitchers, and it’s reasonable to be concerned about the heavy lefthandedness ahead of Tuesday night, but the Phils will be fine in that department as long as Rob Thomson doesn’t overthink it. It’s ultimately less about the other team and more about controlling what you do. You should win a three-game series with home field advantage and Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola on the mound. You should beat a team without much playoff experience. The Phils have a higher payroll, better run differential, and ERA. The defensive metrics are a wash. Miami had a losing record against playoff teams. Keep digging up these nuggets and it illustrates what we already knew. The Phils are a better team and it’s time to go out and execute.

If you wanna crown the Marlins, then crown their ass.