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It’s Time to Fade the Worst Team in Baseball for Four Straight Days
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies are about to embark on the lowest-pressure week of their 2025 season.
The Phils have a seven-game road swing that takes them to a pair of hitters’ paradises in Denver and Sacramento.
The first four games of the road trip have the potential to produce some eye-popping, Earth-shattering numbers.
Colorado owns a league-worst 5.80 team ERA and its pitching staff has allowed a .295 batting average. The Rockies have also allowed the most hits and earned runs, but surprisingly, they have let up only the 10th-most home runs.
So, yeah, the theme for Monday-to-Thursday should be: EVERYBODY HITS! WOOOOO!
Of course, the sportsbooks know that too. The Phils are a -240 money line favorite and a few Phillies players have total bases props set at 2.5, higher than the usual 1.5, so you do have to dig a bit to find some betting value.
Monday’s matchup against left-hander Kyle Freeland sets up nicely for two specific hitters: Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos.
Turner had three hits against Colorado in Freeland’s start in South Philly on April 2nd and he owns a .270 batting average in 37 at-bats against Freeland.
Castellanos has a pair of home runs and a .235 average and 1.043 OPS versus Freeland in his career.
Turner and Castellanos are tied for second behind Kyle Schwarber for the most hits away from home on the Phillies roster. They’re also tied for second in hits against left-handed pitchers.
Quite literally all of the stats line up to bet Turner and Castellanos on New Jersey sports betting apps and PA sports betting apps. You can pair them to have 2+ total bases at +145 at Bet365. You can get to +200 by adding the Phillies money line to that Same Game Parlay.
Obviously, -240 is a massive money line, but hell, it might be worth even taking because Cristopher Sanchez is on the bump. He’s only allowed more than two earned runs on one occasion this season and limited the Rockies to a single earned run in his March 31st start against them.
Sanchez’s strikeout prop sits at over/under 5.5. He struck out seven Rockies back in March, and while he hasn’t hit that number in three road starts, he is going up against the most strikeout-prone lineup in baseball.
You can add Sanchez to have 5+ strikeouts to the Turner/Castellanos/ML SGP to get up to +275.
I’d also look into Bet365’s batter strikeouts market not just on Monday, but for the entire series. Michael Toglia and Ryan McMahon are the top targets for that. They rank first and third in individual batter strikeouts in the majors.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.