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Monday Was an Unexpected Phillies Blast – How About Another Round vs. the Cubs?
By Chris Wright
Published:
Kyle Schwarber dropped to one knee, and the Bank rose to its feet.
Schwarber’s first-inning blast against his former team Monday kickstarted a 13-7 butt-kicking over the visiting Chicago Cubs. Schwarber’s second homer, a 2-run shot in the third, gave Cristopher Sanchez all the cushion he needed to pick up the win. (We’ll gloss over what happened after Sanchez exited.)
Tonight, Aaron Nola (1-2, 3.64) is the on the bump. The Cubs will open with reliever Riley Martin, hoping the lefty can quiet Schwarber and Bryce Harper. First pitch is set for 6:40 pm, ET (NBC Sports Philadelphia, TBS, MLB.TV).
Can the Phillies secure the series victory tonight? Let’s get into it and find the best bets for Cubs at Phillies.
Phillies vs Cubs Odds
The graphic above displays the best available odds on PA and NJ betting apps and are subject to change
Riley Martin vs Aaron Nola 2026 Stats
| Statistic | Martin (CHC) | Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| ERA | 0.00 | 3.64 |
| IP | 3.1 | 17.1 |
| xFIP | 2.61 | 3.10 |
| WHIP | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| K/9 | 8.10 | 9.87 |
| BB/9 | 0.00 | 2.08 |
Aaron Nola vs Cubs
| G | W-L | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 7 | 68.2 | 53 | 32 | 12 | 21 | 79 | 4.19 | 1.078 |
Cubs Hitters vs Aaron Nola
| Player | PA | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | BB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dansby Swanson | 68 | 63 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 4 | .222 | .279 | .429 | .708 |
| Michael Conforto | 58 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 5 | .189 | .259 | .358 | .617 |
| Ian Happ | 19 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | .000 | .053 | .000 | .053 |
| Nico Hoerner | 15 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .286 | .333 | .429 | .762 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | .111 | .111 | .222 | .333 |
| Alex Bregman | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Michael Busch | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .533 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .400 | .500 | .900 |
| Carson Kelly | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| Miguel Amaya | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 |
Cubs vs. Phillies Best Bet & Prediction
The Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-140 at bet365)
If yesterday’s 13-7 laugher wasn’t enough of a billboard-sized clue, let me spell it out: The pitching mismatch in this game is simply too massive to ignore. Grab a bet365 sign-up bonus and take the Phillies on the moneyline.
Why? The math is sitting right there on the mound. The Cubs are handing the ball to Riley Martin, tasked to slow down a Phillies lineup that just treated his buddies like batting practice. With guys like Schwarber and Harper swinging hot bats, the Cubs’ pitching staff is in for another long night.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have Nola taking the bump. Nola is a proven, high-strikeout starter who should easily carve through a strikeout-prone Cubs lineup. While the Cubs have shown they can score some runs on the road, expecting an Opener & Help to keep pace with Nola in South Philly is S-tier delusion. Skip the run line if you want to play it safe, smash the Phillies moneyline, and enjoy the show.
Phillies Player Prop Bets & Predictions
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-114 at DraftKings)
If you enjoy watching professional athletes blindly hack at baseballs like they’re swatting spotted lanternflies in August, betting on a pitcher against this Cubs lineup is the move. Nola is sitting guys down with a highly respectable 9.87 strikeouts per nine innings across 17.1 frames this season. Tonight, he gets to carve up a roster that treats the strikeout like a beloved team-building exercise. Ian Happ has already piled up 22 punchouts, Pete Crow-Armstrong has 21, and Dansby Swanson is sitting on 18. Nola should cruise past this incredibly generous total before the 500 Level runs out of beer.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104 at DraftKings)
For the second time this season, we correctly called a Schwarbomb as one of our player props. (Apologies for not predicting he’d hit 2 last night, and suggesting the Under.) Schwarber boasts a hulking .618 slugging percentage, and out of his 13 hits this season, 9 have gone for extra bases.
Against the Cubs, the man is power hungry. He now has 10 home runs against his former team — as well as a 2-game HR streak vs. the Cubs dating to last season.
With the Cubs throwing a poor reliever onto the mound to start a bullpen day, we are staring down a parade of tired, overworked arms. Schwarber only needs one solid swing into the right-field gap (or seats) to cash this prop. Given the current state of the Cubs’ pitching, he might just get it out of the way on the first pitch he sees.
Schwarber HR Streaks vs Cubs
| Team | Games | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 3 | 06/29/2023 | 09/24/2024 |
| Phillies | 2 | 06/11/2025 | 04/13/2026 |
| Nationals-Phillies | 2 | 05/20/2021 | 07/22/2022 |
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning MLB, NBA and college editor with previous stints at the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer. He vacationed at the Vet, believes Chase Utley is a HOFer and moved to Clearwater to watch the Phillies year-round. His magazine portfolio includes working as a writer and editor at Baseball America. He has decades of experience leading award-winning coverage of the NBA, Major League Baseball, College Baseball, College Basketball, College Football, and the ATP and WTA tennis tours. He has contributed to highly successful NFL coverage as well. Over the course of his career, Chris' team of writers has covered 4 men's Final Fours, 2 Super Bowls, 1 MLB World Series, dozens of professional tennis tournaments and NCAA championships in football and baseball. Chris joined Saturday Down South in 2015 and quickly was promoted to Executive Editor, where he successfully helped build the staff and directed college football, college basketball and college baseball coverage for 10 years. Under Chris' leadership and mentoring, Saturday Down South grew into the largest SEC-only website in America. In 2025, Chris took on a new challenge as the Evergreen Editor at SportRadar, primarily building and maintaining pages for Saturday Down South. In addition to overseeing that project, Chris also uses AI tools to cover MLB, the NBA, college sports, tennis and the NFL for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.