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Philadelphia Phillies Chase Rate Update: It’s Still Pretty Good
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There was a lot of hubbub back in April when it was noted that the Phillies had Major League Baseball’s lowest chase rate. This was a big deal, because, as you well know, the reason they lost to the Mets and D Backs in the playoffs is because they were swinging at flaming hot garbage outside of the zone.
The statistic was everywhere on April 6th, super-early in the season, so a lot of people rightfully scoffed. “24% chase rate? Wake me up in October!”
Well it’s not October yet, but we do have a May update for you, about one month later with the 22-15 Phillies on a current heater. The latest numbers from Sportradar:
13th is good. Note how small the variation is. There is less than one percentage point separating 9th from 14th, while the league’s lowest chase rate is 24.8% and the highest chase rate is 31.2%. That’s the San Diego Padres bringing up the rear. Notably, you’re looking less at other teams and more at Phillies trends year-over-year, and in the 2024 regular season they finished with a 30.3% chase rate. That was 25th in Major League Baseball. The Mets NLDS series the posted a miserable 31.8%.
If the Phillies hold steady around the number they’re posting right now, 27.5%, it would constitute an improvement of almost three full percentage points from last year.
Individually, the guys pulling the number down are Johan Rojas, Edmundo Sosa, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh, who have chase rates above 30%. Harper has chased a team-high 120 pitches this season already. On the low end you have Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Alec Bohm all below 26% while the middle of the pack features J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, and Max Kepler, all between 26 and 29% chase rate.
What’s nice is that if you filter the stats for all NL East players, Rojas is the only Phillie in the top 15 of chase rate. And even then, he’s hitting .299 and playing well, so you take data like this and add your eyeballs to the equation for the ultimate takeaway.
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com