Ad Disclosure
Phillies Hitters Could Tee Off in Favorable Series Opener Against Padres
By Joe Tansey
Published:
There’s no better way to erase the memories of a tough series than to put up a high run total at home.
That’s what the Philadelphia Phillies should be expected to do against Randy Vazquez and the San Diego Padres on Monday night at Citizens Bank Park..
Vazquez comes into CBP with a 5.50 road ERA and lefties are hitting a whopping .448 against him. Righties aren’t doing too bad either with a .250 BA, but the splits against lefties, including four home runs allowed, stand out immediately.
The Phillies are only a -178 favorite because Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. He’s valued in a different tier than Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, and Aaron Nola.
But Sanchez has been really good at home with a 1.95 ERA, eight earned runs, and most notably no homers allowed in a park notorious for giving up some large bombs.
The Padres rank 25th in the majors in batting average against left-handed pitching. They do have the best road batting average in the majors, but they also just scored eight runs in three games at Citi Field this weekend. Six of those runs came on Sunday. They had two one-run performances on Friday and Saturday.
To further the point about Vazquez, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have 19 combined home runs against right-handed pitching in 2024. Harper hit 11 of his 15 homers at CBP, while Schwarber has seven of his 14 long shots at home.
Of course, the books know all these stats, too, which is why Schwarber is around +220 to hit a home run and Harper’s prices are around +300. FanDuel has the best Same Game Parlay number for Schwarber/Harper HR at +917. DraftKings sits at +800, BetMGM has it at +850. BetMGM has a MLB bet insurance token available on Mondays. There are some solid and recurring PA sportsbook promos out there.
You could also look into a Schwarber/Harper 2+ total bases SGP, which varies in price between +240 and +300 depending on the book.
Trea Turner’s return will be the headlines as well on Monday, and while it’s intriguing to bet his props in the first game back, he didn’t have a rehab assignment, which means he hasn’t seen any live pitching in a month.
Brandon Marsh would be the better option of the two recently-returned Phillies. He has four home runs and a .804 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
Fading Vazquez straight up is another way to approach the game. DraftKings listed his hits allowed prop at 5.5 and earned runs allowed at 3.5. He allowed six or more hits in five of his eight starts and at least three earned runs in five of eight appearances.
The Phillies’ team total is set at 5.5 runs because of the matchup, so it may be better just fading San Diego’s starter so you need two fewer runs for an over bet to cash.
No matter which way you put it, though, the Phillies should start their latest homestand with a bang.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.