Phillies

Phillies on the Offensive: Why Battering the Rays Proves Rob Thomson Was Right All Along

By Anthony SanFilippo

Published: Jul 6th, 2023 · 9:16 AM EDT

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For what seems like forever, Phillies manager Rob Thomson has been assuring us that the offense is coming.

He’s said it repeatedly. He reminds us that players who have had extended slumps will eventually hit like what’s on the back of their baseball cards. He promised an influx of power, too, an unexpected void in the team’s stats in the first half of the season.

If nothing else, what we should have learned already about Rob Thomson as a manager is that he his patient, he is confident, he believes in his players, and sometimes, he is prescient.

You may not always agree with his managerial decisions in-game. You may not like his lineups, or how he deploys his bullpen. But he has managed 196 regular season games and 17 playoff games with the Phillies and and he’s a combined 31 games over .500 in that time (122-91).

So the guy must be doing something right. He must have a good feel for his team and know when and how to push some buttons. He may be a man of few words to the media, but he obviously has the ear of his players, and what he does say publicly tends to ring true.

Because that offense he keeps saying is coming, may have finally arrived.

Wednesday was just the latest example as the Phillies blitzed the Tampa Bay Rays, who went into the game tied with the Braves for the most wins in baseball, for eight runs and 17 hits en route to their 11th straight road win, by a final of 8-4. The Phillies ensured themselves a series win in Tampa, something that seemed unlikely after coughing up a home series against the lowly Nationals last weekend, and they have a shot at pulling off an even more unexpected sweep of the Rays on Thursday.

There’s a lot to unpack statistically from that last paragraph, so let’s do it as a bulleted list:

• In the last 11 games (8-3), the Phillies are averaging 5.9 runs and 10 hits per game.
• In that same span, their slash line as a team is .284/.347/.481 with an OPS of .828.
• In those 11 games, they have hit 16 home runs (1.5 per game).
• By comparison, in the first 74 games (38-36) the Phillies averaged 4.4 runs, 8.8 hits, had a slash line of .257/.321/.415 with an OPS of .736 and hit 78 home runs (1.1 per game).
• Only two Phillies teams have ever won more games in a row on the road than this current squad – the 1888 Phillies won 12 straight and the 1976 team won 13 straight. That’s it.

Since June 3rd, when the Phillies started their ascent from the basement of the National League East, the Phillies are 21-7. A lot has been made about their pitching in that time, and deservedly so. The pitching carried them through most of June and has been good now, four games into July. And yes, the entire staff has combined for a 2.88 ERA in those 28 games, which is sensational – especially compared to the first 57 games (4.72) which… wasn’t sensational.

But if you look at the seven losses in those 28 games, you can find a common theme – a lack of offensive production.

Sure, in those nine games, the Phillies hit .271 as a team, but there were a lot of empty hits as only 20 of their 65 hits were for extra bases. Their OPS for those nine games was .722, and they scored a grand total of 18 runs (2.57 per game), of which eight came in one game, a 9-8 loss to the Diamondbacks. In five of the seven games, they scored two or fewer runs.

Here’s the kicker, of those seven losses, six were winnable. They were blown out by the Dodgers and pitching failed them in the aforementioned game against Arizona, although they could have won that one too. But both losses to Atlanta, the loss to the Mets, and both losses to the Nationals were all a result of a lack of offensive production.

But we’re seeing that worm finally turning. Yes, there are still going to be games when the Phillies lineup goes cold. This road winning streak won’t go on forever, and there will be some more games like those seven losses in the past month-plus. But, when this offense is clicking, it’s as potent as any in the sport.

Consider Wednesday, in a game when the Phillies didn’t get a great pitching performance, but a gritty one from Taijuan Walker, who allowed four runs and was wild, walking five guys, but kept the Phillies in the game, pitching out of trouble a couple times in his seven innings of work:

• Bryson Stott had four hits and RBI. He was easily the star of the game.
• J.T. Realmuto, who needed a good game, had three hits and an RBI.
• Alec Bohm had three hits and an RBI.
• Trea Turner had two hits, including a solo homer.
•  Bryce Harper had two hits, including a scorching double to right field.
• Brandon Marsh had a key two-run single.
• Nick Castellanos hit a solo homer, his 13th, matching his full-season total from a season ago.
• Darick Hall had his first RBI hit since last season.

That’s eight of the nine starters. The only guy who did nothing is Kyle Schwarber, who was 0-for-6 and continues to scuffle along with his batting average at .185 and his OPS down to .755 for the season.

Foe what it’s worth, it was only the sixth time in the last 12 seasons the Phillies have had their leadoff hitter go 0-for-6 or worse in a game. Usually, if the leadoff hitter is batting six times, the lineup is doing something right, which is why the Phillies are 5-1 in those six games.

Stott is now hitting .304, fifth-best in the N.L. Bohm is up to .285 and leads the Phillies in RBI with 56, which ranks ninth in the N.L.. Harper has upped his average to .300, which would rank seventh in the N.L. behind Stott, but he’s just short of qualifying at the moment (barring injury, Harper will likely qualify later this month), and has also raised his OPS back over .800 (.806). And what more can you say about Castellanos, who is fourth in the N.L. in batting average (.310), has 55 RBI, which is one short of the top 10 in the league, has 26 doubles, which ranks third in the N.L. and remains the most consistent offensive threat in this Phillies lineup, as he has all season?

The offense might have taken a while to get here, but it seems like it’s here now – and Thomson was proves once again, to be baseball’s version of The Amazing Kreskin.