Ad Disclosure
Ranger Suarez is the Phillies’ Most Complicated Free Agent
By Sean Barnard
Published:
Far sooner than was hoped to be the case, the Philadelphia Phillies have turned a page to the offseason.
Following four consecutive playoff appearances and back-to-back years in which they have failed to make it past the NLDS, there are some difficult decisions to make.
Most pressing will be what to do with the team’s impending free agents. Kyle Schwarber headlines this list with J.T. Realmuto, Max Kepler, Jordan Romano, David Robertson, Walker Buehler, and Lou Trivino rounding out the names. Jose Alvarado holds a club option and there is a mutual $10 million option for Harrison Bader. But perhaps the most complicated free agent is Ranger Suarez.
Ranger Suarez is a Stud
The Phillies signed Suarez as an international free agent back in 2012. He remained in Venezuela for a few years before coming over to the minor leagues and making his MLB debut in 2018. He found a reliable role in 2019, pitching in 37 games exclusively out of the bullpen, amounting to 48.2 innings and a 6-1 record with a 3.14 ERA. He began the transition to a starting pitching role in 2021, starting in 12 of his 39 games pitched. The 30-year-old threw 106.0 total innings across the season posting a ridiculous 1.36 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 5.6 WAR. He transition to a full time starting pitching role in 2022 and has remained in this role since.
While he started as a fan-favorite and underrated pitching talent, the rest of MLB has caught on to the level of talent he has shown to be. Suarez earned his first All-Star appearance last season and possesses the unique skill of being one of the most versatile pitchers out there. He can scale his usage up or down, be used out of the bullpen, and has recorded the final out of playoff games for this Phillies team before.
Looking at just the postseason, Suarez is one of the most dominant playoff pitchers in all of baseball. He has thrown 42.2 inning in the playoffs across his career, posting a 4-1 record, a 1.48 ERA, a 1.055 WHIP, and allowed just 32 total hits while striking out 44. He has the lowest postseason ERA of any active player and, with a minimum 10 games and 40 innings pitched, the third-lowest postseason ERA in baseball history (trailing Mariano Rivera and Christy Mathewson). No situation or level of pressure ever rattles the left-hander.
Perhaps no example shows this more than his lone postseason pitching appearance this year. Why this was his only appearance is a better question for Rob Thomson. After Aaron Nola cruised through two scoreless inning to start Game 3, Suarez entered from the bullpen and allowed a first-pitch home run to Tommy Edman. Then he responded by not allowing another run across his five innings pitched and just three total hits in what turned out to be the Phillies’ lone victory of the series.
Crowded Pitching Outlook
The decision surrounding Ranger Suarez has far less to do with him directly and much more with the context of the pitching staff around him.
Zack Wheeler is set to be the second-highest paid player in all of baseball next year with his $42 million price point trailing only Juan Soto. His outlook may be a bit of a concern given the blood clot issue that ended his season this year and the unclear timeline for his return. This issue has to be viewed through a slightly different lens with him dealing with more of a medical issue than an injury. But there should still be full confidence that once he does return, Wheeler will resume his place as one of the clear best pitchers in baseball and ace of this Phillies team. The 35-year old has been extremely open about this being his final MLB contract, but is still on the books for two more seasons at this salary.
Cristopher Sanchez has proven capable of stepping into the ace shoes in Wheeler’s absence and is shaping into one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. If it were not for Paul Skenes, Sanchez would be adding a Cy Young Award to his resume for this year’s performance. The 28-year-old posted an 8.0 WAR this season which trailed only Aaron Judge in all of baseball. He posted a 13-5 record, a 2.50 ERA, a 1.064 WHIP, and struck out 212 hitters while allowing just 171 hits across his 202 innings pitched. Sanchez is under team control for the next five seasons and under contract for just $3.5 million for next season.
The Phillies elected the sign Nola to a seven-year contract worth $172 million in total before the 2024 season. He will be entering the third year of this contract next year and is signed through the 2030 season at roughly $24.6 million annually. Dombrowski also elected to trade for Jesus Luzardo last offseason, who is under contract via arbitration through 2026. Luzardo had his ups and downs throughout the season, but delivered in the playoffs and looks the part of a top-end starting pitcher when his stuff is right.
This already puts the Phillies at four locked-in starting pitchers without bringing up prized prospect Andrew Painter. The biggest mistake the Phillies made in regard to Painter’s pathway was putting the expectation on him publicly that he would make an MLB debut this past season. The 22-year-old struggled this season and posted a 5.40 ERA in AAA. This should not be looked at as a massive concern for a young player working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but certainly isn’t ideal either. You will not hear anything but praise and belief coming from the Phillies organization regarding his outlook, and this upcoming season will be an extremely important one for Painter. Ideally, he is able to be a key part of the rotation and begin to develop into the long-term starting pitcher the Phillies expect him to be.
Ranger’s Price Point
The million-dollar question is how many millions Ranger Suarez will get in free agency. Spotrac is currently projecting Suarez to receive a six-year, $161 million deal in the open market. Starting pitching is always at a premium and Suarez has delivered for the Phillies on a massive stage that all other teams surely have taken notice of.
In theory, nothing changes with the results if nothing changes with the roster, but it also feels like bad practice to allow a player of this caliber to just walk out of the organization with nothing in return. On the other hand, is it truly the best usage of assets to invest a high-dollar figure into the pitching staff with so much already committed? Before any critiques to ownership for being cheap come in it also should be noted the Phillies are coming off a season in which they were third in the MLB in total payroll and they already are sixth heading into next season without making any moves or adding a Kyle Schwarber contract to that total.
Suarez himself has expressed his desire to stay with the Phillies whenever he has been asked about it this year. But he also hired Scott Boras as his agent in preparations for this free agency and this is his chance to make his biggest paycheck.
To some extent, it feels the writing is on the wall that Suarez will be involved in a bidding war beyond what the Phillies will be comfortable being involved in. The question may end up being, will this end up leaving a larger void than the Phillies truly realize?
Sean Barnard has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and general Philly Sports for over six years in a variety of roles and for multiple outlets. Currently works as a Content Writer for DraftKings Network, Sixers/NBA Insider for Philadelphia's Fox Sports the Gambler, and co-host of Sixers & Phillies Digest on Youtube. Forever Trusting the Process.