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The Comeback That Wasn’t: Phils Fall Just Short After Arrieta Buries Them Early

Bob Wankel

By Bob Wankel

Published:

In general terms, the Phillies should feel good about their recent response to the disastrous stretch of games in Buffalo and Atlanta that left their season on the brink of disaster. They should feel good about grabbing an important series win over the first-place Braves this weekend, too.

They should also feel about a potent offense that plated eight runs over the first four innings on Sunday night, one that after falling behind 10-0 in the second inning, brought the potential tying run to the dish only an inning later. Notably, it also brought the go-ahead run to the plate in the fourth.

And yet, the Phillies should be extremely disappointed after tonight’s 12-10 loss to the Braves.

With an opportunity to pull within one-game of Atlanta while moving into sole possession of second place in the N.L. East, they failed to win their sixth straight game. They didn’t, of course, because Jake Arrieta dug a hole, nay, a crater so deep that not even the Phillies’ spirited rally could dig out of it.

What a difference five years make.

Following Arrieta’s most recent start last Tuesday during which he went five innings and allowed just one run to the Nationals, he couldn’t escape the second inning on Sunday night as he was pounded into submission by a Braves lineup he had dominated 22 days earlier.

“I just wasn’t able to locate and get anything going. I just flat-out didn’t throw the ball very well. It was a weird night,” he said.  “It’s pretty hard to give up seven or eight runs in an inning, and I found a way to do that tonight. I look forward to forgetting that as quick as possible and moving on because if you beat yourself up too much, it will carry over. I’m looking forward to the next four days, getting to work, and being a lot better than that.”

Arrieta recorded just four outs and needed 46 pitches to do it. Home plate umpire Ramon De Jesus had a tight zone, but it was evident almost immediately that Arrieta had no consistent idea of where the ball was going out of his hand. Only 23 of his 46 pitches were strikes.

“When he threw strikes, they were up. When he threw balls, they were down, and they weren’t swinging at them,” Joe Girardi said. “He was really off tonight. As good as he was five days ago, he was really off tonight.”

The starting rotation had been key in the Phillies’ resurgence this week after plummeting to 9-14 last Saturday in Atlanta.

During the team’s five-game winning streak, Phillies starters surrendered just eight earned runs over 30 innings. On Sunday night, Arrieta surrendered seven earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings.

Arrieta, the only Phillies starting pitcher with true big game experience, buried his team on an important night.

The Comeback That Wasn’t

It was frustrating to watch the Phillies come thisclose to climbing all the way back to even in both the third and fourth innings, but they just couldn’t scale the mountain.

I’m not sure how much you could have blamed the Phillies offense had it taken the rest of the night off after falling down by a touchdown and field goal in the second. According to ESPN Stats and Info, the Braves had a 98.7% of winning after building their 10-0 lead. Lesser teams would have rolled over and died, so credit to the Phillies for showing some fight.

Here’s a look at the comeback that wasn’t.

Didi Gregorius got one back for the Phillies in the bottom of the second with this 352 ft. blast to right field.

Braves win probability: 98.2%

In the third, Andrew McCutchen would double home Roman Quinn.

Braves win probability: 95.5%

That set up this two-run blast by Rhys Hoskins:

It was after Hoskins’ homer that Girardi believed his team had a chance.

“When it got to 10-4, I thought that, you know what, we’re going to hang around this game, and we’re going to have a chance to win,” he said. “Our guys battled. The bullpen did a good job of keeping it pretty close and giving us an opportunity to come back after that. Some guys swung the bat really well, we just came up a little short.”

Braves win probability: 91.9%

Later in the third, Gregorius roped a two-run triple into the right field corner to make it a 10-6 game. I’m guessing it was at this point that the “Well, shit. Maybe?” thought entered the minds of those still watching.

Braves win probability: 78.3%

Phil Gosselin would score Gregorius with an RBI groundout to make it 10-7.

Braves win probability: 77.9%

Remarkably, the Phillies would bring the tying run to the plate three batters later when McCutchen dug into the box, but he grounded out to end the threat.

In the fourth inning, the Phillies nearly tied the game when a deep fly ball off the bat of Realmuto was caught just feet in front of the right field fence. Still, Hoskins moved to third and would score on a Jean Segura single.

Braves win probability: 60.7%

The Phillies would then bring the go-ahead run to the plate, but Gregorius and Gosselin would strand a pair of runners.

The Braves would halt the Phillies’ momentum in the fifth by tacking on a run, and A.J. Minter, Chris Martin, and Shane Greene stabilized things with a combined 3 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball.

Braves win probability: 93.5%

The Phillies would finally get on the board again in the eighth when Quinn and McCutchen would go back-to-back to off Will Smith to make it a run-one game:

Braves win probability: 75.3%

However, Dansby Swanson would add a big insurance run with a solo homer in the ninth. After Realmuto was hit by a pitch to start the ninth, the Phillies would again bring the tying run to the plate with Jean Segura. Segura, however, would hit sharply into a 6-4-3 double play. Gregorius would ground out to end it.

Braves win probability: 100%

Almost.

The Trade Deadline

In my estimation, the Phillies could use a high leverage bullpen arm and another starting pitcher, but Jake Arrieta likes the Phillies’ current composition.

I invite you to take a look at the responses to this tweet. Enjoy.

The Rise of Rhys

Following a three-hit game on Saturday, Rhys Hoskins produced another multi-hit game on Sunday night. After his first 13 games this season, Hoskins’ had an abysmal .642 OPS, mostly saddled by an anemic .238 slugging percentage.

However, he has since raised his OPS to .903. In fact, Hoskins OPS is .162 points higher than that of Mets first baseman Pete Alonso.

Andrew McCutchen Turning It On

McCutchen didn’t get the start in left field on Sunday night, but he was in the lineup as the designated hitter. McCutchen entered the night on a roll, slashing .365/.389/.577 over his last 12 games.

In the process, he raised his batting average from .180 to .275.

After a two hit performance tonight, including an eighth-inning homer, he’s up to .280 with a .752 OPS.

Before the game, Girardi talked about McCutchen’s ability to overcome a sluggish start.

“We saw it coming, and Joe Dillon alway said, ‘He’s getting closer, he’s getting closer,’ and it was just kind of him using his backside a little bit better,” he said. “Obviously, there were some hurdles we had to clear because he’s coming off that knee injury, and I think part of those hurdles were mental for Cutch that everything was going to be okay. I think every athlete goes through that, as you pass one more test. ‘I’m good about that, I’m good about that,’ and it just took a little bit, but he’s been really, really good.”

Joe Girardi’s First Ejection

Joe Girardi was ejected in the ninth inning of tonight’s game after arguing a ball in-play that was incorrectly deemed foul. It was the 37th time in his managerial career that he’s been ejected and the first with the Phillies.

Girardi disagreed with the ejection.

Rough Stretch for Harper and Realmuto

If I told you that over the last six games Harper and Realmuto would combine to go 8-for-49 (.163) with just one homer, you would have had the Phillies going what? 1-5?

Their recent run is a testament to the starting pitching (tonight notwithstanding) and the recent emergence of players like McCutchen, Hoskins, and Jean Segura.

 

What the Hale is Going On?

The Phillies acquired David Hale from the New York Yankees back on Aug. 21, but he had yet to throw a pitch with his new team prior to tonight. The Phillies have been hot, and Girardi has clearly developed a hierarchy of relief options in tight games.

Hale, it would appear, is not at the top of it.

Ironically, Destiny Lugardo of Phillies Nation asked Girardi about Hale’s lack of usage prior to tonight’s game:

I guess he was just waiting for his starting pitcher to implode in the second inning of a game to work in Hale. The 32-year-old had not pitched in a game since Aug. 11 with the Yankees. The rust of his 19-day layoff showed as he was pounded by the Braves in relief of Arrieta.

He allowed a pair of inherited runners to score and proceeded to give up three earned runs, including this two-run shot:

Thinking it could be awhile before we see him again.

 

Bob Wankel
Bob Wankel

Bob Wankel covers the Phillies for Crossing Broad. He is also the Vice President of Sports Betting Content at SportRadar. On Twitter: @Bob_Wankel E-mail: b.wankel@sportradar.com

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