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The Phillies’ Win Total Dropped to 89.5, Which Feels Like a Slam Dunk OVER
Published:
Our friends at BetMGM sent over some MLB insights, and it turns out the Phillies’ over/under for total wins has dropped below 90:
Notable win total decreases (Open to Current)
- Yankees 93.5 to 90.5
- Phillies 92.5 to 89.5
- Blue Jays 91.5 to 88.5
- Brewers 87.5 to 84.5
- Padres 85.5 to 83.5
- Reds 83.5 to 81.5
- Giants 82.5 to 80.5
- Marlins 76.5 to 72.5
- Cardinals 73.5 to 69.5
I don’t know about this. It feels like a low number. This is a team that has gone from 82 wins in 2021 to 87, 90, 95, and 96 wins in the four ensuing seasons. Last year’s team won the most games since Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee were mowing down batters back in 2011. They’ve won two division titles in a row.
The public vibes surrounding the Phillies may not be overly positive, but if you’re one of those people who believes that 2026 is a “run it back” season, then doesn’t that suggest lateral movement? It suggests similar to what the team did last year, maybe not 96 or 95 wins, but do we really think they’re dropping below 90 entirely? They’re returning the core of Bryce Harper (healthy now), Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner. J.T. Realmuto is back. Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh are in place. Justin Crawford looks pretty good. Adolis Garcia, we’ll see. Ranger Suarez is gone, but Zack Wheeler might not miss that much time and Cristopher Sanchez is a bona fide stud. They’ve got Jesus Luzardo and we’ll see what we get from Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter, and Cy-Juan Walker. The bullpen looks solid.
Am I crazy for wanting to hammer this over? Somebody tell me what I’m missing. Am I an idiot? It just feels like a classic case of Negadelphia vibes not matching the actual state of the team. I’m not HIGH on the Phillies but it doesn’t mean I think they’re going to be seven games WORSE than they were last season. Barring some sort of long-term injury to a key player (or two), this feels like a 90-win team again.
If nothing else, hit the over 85 games at 63% at Kalshi. That’s a good wager:
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com