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What to Make of the Jesus Luzardo Experience, and Projecting his Phillies Postseason Role
By Sean Barnard
Published:
Starting pitching has been the biggest strength of this Phillies team. For the most part, Jesus Luzardo has been a part of this effort. But the outlook has changed in a major way as the season has progressed.
Through his first 11 starts this season, the Phillies went 8-3 with Luzardo on the hill, the 27-year-old posting a 2.15 ERA with 77 strikeouts across 67 innings with just three home runs allowed. In the 12 starts since, the Phillies are 5-7. Luzardo is now posting a 6.75 ERA with 70 strikeouts across 60 innings, with nine home runs conceded.
There have been some issues pitching from the stretch that the Phillies have yet to fully figure out. When the bases are empty, opponents are hitting .241 with a .625 OPS. When there are runners on, opponent batting averages climb to .284 with a .823 OPS. Eight of the 12 home runs Luzardo allowed occurred with runners on base. This was on full display in Luzardo’s previous start when it took Tyler O’Neil just two pitches to launch a ball he had completely timed 417 feet over the bleachers:
To his credit, Luzardo settled in and allowed just three runs in six innings, which included retiring his last 11 batters faced.
The topic of “tipping pitches” was a popular one a few weeks ago, and there has been some progress in Luzardo shifting his delivery.
But the reality is some of these tells are baked into his mechanics and would take some deeper change to be able to address this. This is impossible on a mid-season timeline and unlikely even across an offseason.
It also brings the question of what to do with Luzardo from here. He will be completely fine for the remainder of the regular season, even if a few of these concerning stretches pop up. But the larger equation is the postseason fit. The Phillies already have a log jam of starting pitching with Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez locks for playoff starts, Ranger Suarez being as built for the postseason as a player can come, and Aaron Nola making his return from injury.
Nola has been one of the better innings eaters in the MLB for the duration of his career, but did not look like himself at the start of this season. He has not pitched since May 14th and is working himself back from the ankle injury that landed him on the IL and the stress fracture in his ribs that was later discovered. These are totally justifiable reasons for his early struggles, but the reality is Nola had a 1-7 record with a 6.16 ERA across his first nine starts. He allowed at least four runs in five of these and only exited a start without allowing an earned run once. There is enough of a track record across his 11 year career to believe Nola will settle in and look like himself again, but it would be nice to get a couple of positive starts to close the season to cement this belief.
But if Luzardo has not earned the full trust in a starting role, is he a sure thing coming out of the bullpen?
Truthfully this is a bit of splitting hairs with this pitching outlook plenty better than what some other teams will juggle in the postseason. Luzardo is too talented to leave off the roster entirely and getting something out of him should be looked as a benefit. He will be a solid option as a long-relief pitcher if one of the starters does not have it. The former Marlins standout also has put-away stuff that plays out of the bullpen more than some of the other options like Nola or (lol) Taijuan Walker. Don’t expect him to threaten Jhoan Duran, Matt Strahm, or Orion Kerkering for the high-leverage options and having another left-handed pitcher as a bullpen option could prove important if the situation requires it.
The Phillies don’t have any better option than to hope Luzardo continues to work through his struggles and come out on the right side. But the lone offseason addition to look like a difference-maker (shoutout to Max Kepler, Jordan Romano, and Joe Ross for posing zero competition) seeming less certain isn’t quite ideal.
Sean Barnard has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and general Philly Sports for over six years in a variety of roles and for multiple outlets. Currently works as a Content Writer for DraftKings Network, Sixers/NBA Insider for Philadelphia's Fox Sports the Gambler, and co-host of Sixers & Phillies Digest on Youtube. Forever Trusting the Process.