Phillies

What’s Next for the Phillies Starting Rotation?

By Luke Arcaini

Published: Jul 5th, 2025 · 2:18 PM EDT

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The Philadelphia Phillies have three elite starting pitchers in their starting rotation: Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez. What’s after that? We don’t really know.

Jesus Luzardo allowed 7 earned runs in the first six starts of his Phillies career. He had a 1.44 ERA in April. Everything was fine until May 31st, when he got shelled for 12 earned runs against the Milwaukee Brewers in an afternoon game at Citizens Bank Park. He hasn’t been the same since then.

The same pitcher who had a 1.73 ERA at one point this season now holds a 4.44 ERA, 57th in baseball. He’s struck out 115 batters, but holds a 1.47 WHIP, good for 73rd in the league.

What’s wrong with Jesus Luzardo? Nobody truly knows. Luzardo said postgame on Friday that his arm and body feels 100% healthy. It’s obvious that Luzardo’s issues right now are stemming from the stretch. Luzardo, since he adjusted his mechanics after his start on June 5th in Toronto, has allowed an opponent slash line of .226/.294/.242 while pitching from the windup.

The stretch, with runners on base? .432/.492/.692 with 7 walks and 11 strikeouts in 59 PA (H/T Matt Gelb of The Athletic). It’s a big concern. Rob Thomson acknowledged after the game that’s where a lot of Luzardo’s current issues are coming from.

The Phillies have the confidence in Luzardo to find the middle ground of his season. I don’t think he’s the Cy-Young candidate that we saw through the first month of the season, but he’s also not what he is right now. It’s somewhere in the middle, and that’s fine for a 4th starter.

The 5th starter? That’s a different question right now.

Mick Abel was optioned to Triple-A on Friday, and it could be a while till he’s back in the majors. Abel suffered five walks and five earned runs in his start, unable to make it out of the second inning.

Abel’s past struggles have all relied around his command. He’s worked very hard to limit walks over the years, and he showed that early this season before his promotion to the big leagues. Abel didn’t walk a single batter in his first two starts. He then walked three against Chicago on June 10th. He had a good start against Miami back on the 16th of July, but just hasn’t looked comfortable since.

The Phillies are going to give him a chance to reset down in Lehigh Valley. Abel will stay on the same schedule and start Thursday for the Iron Pigs. But he’s not necessarily guaranteed a spot in the rotation following the All-Star Break.

Andrew Painter will be in the majors soon. It could happen a few days after the All-Star Game. Painter is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA in the minors this year in 56.2 innings. He’s struck out 64 batters and holds a 1.34 WHIP.

The Phillies aren’t concerned about his stats. They care more about health and development right now than what the numbers show. He threw four really solid innings in his last start, then got hit around in the 5th. Painter won’t be perfect when he’s promoted to make his major league debut. He’s 22 years old. But the Phillies are going to give this kid a chance, and it’s probably going to happen sooner than you think.

The Phillies will roll out Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzardo after the All-Star Break. If they think Painter is ready to come up, that 5th spot will be his. If they think he needs another week or so in Triple-A, that 5th spot will probably go to Mick Abel or Taijuan Walker, who will start on Tuesday in San Francisco.

All of a sudden, the elite Phillies rotation has some question marks at the backend of the group.