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Without Trea Turner, Bryce Harper Becomes the Most Important Phillie Again
By Nick Piccone
Published:
As of this writing, we are all eagerly – and some not so eagerly – awaiting word on the severity of Trea Turner’s hamstring injury that took him out of the series finale against the Marlins in Miami on Sunday. It was a 4-3 game and the Phillies were threatening to at least tie it in the 7th inning. They would also threaten to tie the game in the 9th inning when, down 5-3, Kyle Schwarber singled home Max Kepler to make it 5-4. Bryce Harper stepped into the batter’s box, and proceeded to dig himself into an 0-2 hole before eventually turning one over to the second baseman to end the game.
Stop me if you’ve heard that one before.
Make no mistake, this is not an anti-Bryce Harper post. I don’t have time to fill coming up with takes on why I hate the most popular athletes in this city. Harper’s 2022 NLCS homer in Game 5 gave us all a moment to remember and it’s something I won’t ever forget. Which is why I want him to give us another moment like that again. Even if, for now, it’s just in the regular season:
I’m not one to rely on very many advanced statistics when it comes to watching baseball, although it’s a sport where advanced statistics probably tell more of a story close to reality than not. The term “clutch” has been thrown around and is mostly used as an “eye test” stat. If a batter hits a three-run homer in the first inning to give his team a 3-0 lead, is it the same as a batter hitting a three-run homer in the eighth or ninth inning to give his team a one- or two-run lead? People might have different answers to that question. If the batter puts his team up 3-0, how is that not as clutch as one later in the game to only put his team up one or two? It all depends on the flow of the game and pitchers used, for sure.
But, for me? It used to not matter. I still think it doesn’t matter as much. But when I see the same type of at-bat where Harper has a chance to tie the game or do more damage this particular season in the late innings, I simply say to myself, “Get a clutch hit here.” I don’t think many people are saying that in the first inning, because baseball is made for multiple clutch situations during the course of the game. So while I’m not always digging into advanced analytics, I checked out this “Clutch” stat from Fangraphs to see how Harper fared against the rest of the league this season in determining “how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.“
It wasn’t good. Freddie Freeman was No. 1 at 1.58. Bryce Harper was No. 67 at -0.06. According to that super scientific data, that would put him below league average. Bryson Stott? 0.85. Above average. Alec Bohm? 0.30. Average. I included those two because it will either open your eyes to those two players being a little better than you might think they are, or it will make you take this advanced statistic less seriously than you ever would have before you read this. Also, remember in those situations that Harper faces tougher pitching match-ups late in the game that account for that score. So while comparing him against himself may feel a little counterintuitive, it gives a glimpse into how other players fare better in different situations as the season has progressed.
It still looks like Harper is pressing in those situations. He certainly wants to smash the baseball 450 feet on every swing regardless of the inning. And this year, I’ve seen considerably more soft contact when he shortens his swing to try and get a base hit to get a runner to advance or score from second or third. And it’s worked sometimes! But more times than not, we’ve seen a strikeout or the same lazy ground ball like the one that ended Sunday’s game.
If Turner is going to miss significant time, Harper is going to have to improve in these situations. While we have seen other players this season come through in those situations – guys like Stott, Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and Max Kepler – who a lot of us thought would not currently be on this roster this late in the season, it feels like we’re still waiting for *that* Harper moment. The moment late in the game where we can sit back, take a breath, and tell ourselves, “There he is.”
This series against the Mets seems like a perfect time for that guy to return.
Nick Piccone has covered Philly sports and events for various outlets for over 14 years. He covered professional wrestling for PhillyVoice from 2015-2021, and co-launched The Straight Shooters podcast in 2015, covering the entire pro wrestling industry. He also produces content for Fox Sports Radio Philadelphia and the Villanova Sports Radio Network. He grew up in South Philadelphia and South Jersey, and is a graduate of Neumann University. Contact: picconenick@gmail.com