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You Know the Name, But What Makes Jhoan Duran So Good?
By Luke Arcaini
Published:
If you haven’t already seen, the Phillies made the biggest splash in Major League Baseball with less than 24 hours till the trade deadline, acquiring Twins closer Jhoan Duran for Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait.
Duran is elite, no question about it. He has a 2.01 ERA in 49.1 innings this year, logging 16 saves, 53 strikeouts, and a 1.18 WHIP. He’s one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in all of baseball, with his four-seamer averaging 100.2 in 2025.
But it’s not just his fastball that makes him so effective. Honestly, it’s everything else.
Duran throws a splitter 37.6% of the time that he’s on the mound. He’s allowed just three extra-base hits this entire season off of the pitch. Batters are hitting it at a .221 average with a .286 slugging percentage. The average batter, if they make contact, is hitting it at just 87.9 mph. They’re whiffing at a 26.5% rate.
His four-seamer is his flash pitch. He can absolutely hurl it into the strike zone. He’s topped out this season up in the 102 range. If a hitter wants a chance to touch him, it’s going to have to be his fastball, although opponents are hitting just .236 against it this year.
Here’s where he starts to get unhittable:
His knuckle-curve isn’t his go-to pitch, but it’s his putaway pitch. He’s got a 30% putaway rate and a 41.5% whiff rate on that specific pitch this year. Hitters are hitting just .217 on it this year. He’s thrown it 157 times, and only 10 hits have been recorded, none of which went for extra bases.
Duran does have one more pitch, a sweeper, but he only shows it 7.7% of the time. He’s thrown it 59 times this season, and not one hit has been logged off of it.
He’s made arm angle change over the last two years, and it’s paying off. He tossed the ball at a 37-degree angle in 2022, a 39-degree angle in 2023, a 34-degree angle in 2024, and a 33-degree angle this year.
It’s paid off.
Duran’s arm angle has led him to draw the highest single-season chase percentage of his career, up to 31.1% in 2025. He’s also surrendered the lowest hard-hit rate of his four-year career.
The Phillies needed to add swing-and-miss to their bullpen. They haven’t gotten that this year, especially since Jose Alvarado went down. He’s in the 99th percentile of barrel rate and ground-ball percentage. To put it into easier terms: hitters have to fight to even get on base when he’s on the mound.
What does this mean for the bullpen? Well, the Phillies have their 9th inning guy. Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm can now take down the 7th and 8th inning.
The biggest underlying message of this trade is the fact that Dave Dombrowski still has intriguing prospects left. Guys like Aroon Escobar, Jean Cabrera, and more will interest teams. The Phillies could still attack another bullpen arm if they wanted to.
This team still needs a bat. I’d be shocked if Dave Dombrowski threw his chips in for Duran and didn’t address the need for another hitter. He’s got a little over 20 hours to make that move.
Duran is special, and that’s what the Phillies needed. Signing Jordan Romano didn’t work out. Letting Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez go wasn’t the right move. But they got a guy in Duran who is better than all three of those current and former Phillies, while keeping Andrew Painter in the farm system.
Luke Arcaini writes about the Phillies for Crossing Broad, covers the Phillies for FOX Sports The Gambler, and co-hosts "Phillies Digest" on YouTube. The wave is the worst thing in all of sports. Contact: lukearcaini8@gmail.com