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Zack Wheeler’s Injury Impact on the Remaining Phillies Pitching Staff

Sean Barnard

By Sean Barnard

Published:

Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Phillies’ World Series momentum took a huge hit when it was announced that Zack Wheeler is heading to the injured list with a “Right Upper Extremity Blood Clot.”

There will be a more clear recovery outlook this week as Wheeler returned early from the road trip to undergo further evaluation in Philadelphia. Dave Dombrowski was notably cautious in revealing any sort of details surrounding the 35-year-old’s status during a brief media availability. This is not a pulled hamstring or broken bone with a clear recovery process and timeline. Wheeler is dealing with a legitimate medical issue with repercussions both in his throwing shoulder and in his everyday life.

It is too early to give any sort of speculation on Wheeler’s specific outlook. The clot’s location and severity will dictate the recovery process with surgery sometimes required. There’s a limited sample size of examples of players who have dealt with this in the past, but the deeper you dive into these examples, the less confident you will feel about Wheeler being able to make a return this season. The opening game of the MLB playoffs is scheduled for September 30th, leaving roughly six weeks until this time.

You can make a pretty convincing case that Wheeler is the most irreplaceable player on this Phillies roster. He was firmly in the mix of the Cy Young race this year and has posted a 2.71 ERA, an MLB-best 0.935 WHIP, a league-leading 195 strikeouts, and just 107 total hits allowed across 149.2 innings pitched. Wheeler also led the MLB with a ridiculous 7.5 WAR in 2021 and led the league in home runs per nine innings and WHIP last year as well. The three-time All-Star has thrown 153.0 or more innings in every other season with the Phillies and has posted a 30.6 WAR across his six Philadelphia years. He is a modern day horse, which is becoming increasingly rare in today’s MLB:

For the Phillies, the show goes on.

Starting pitching has been an overall strength this season. If it had not been for Wheeler’s issue popping up, the plan was for the Phillies to shift to a six-man rotation following Aaron Nola’s return to save some wear-and-tear on the collective arms. But when the foundational piece of the pitching staff is removed, the pressure gets ratcheted up for each following remember of the rotation.

Nola made his return to the mound for the first time since May 14th following the Wheeler news. After cruising through two scoreless innings, he was hit around in the third and chased after 2.1 innings with seven hits and six earned runs. He wasn’t hit particularly hard and didn’t look as bad as the raw numbers indicate, but it was a Nola start that we’ve seen a million times.

This is a particularly interesting opportunity for Nola individually. The homegrown 32-year-old has had a somewhat strange relationship with the Philadelphia fan base across his 11-year tenure. He has consistently been one of the most available pitchers in the league, with 180+ innings pitched in six of the past seven seasons, including cracking 200 innings three times. Nola boasts a career 3.78 ERA and has been one of the better pitchers in baseball since entering the league. But he also has failed to climb into the true upper echelon of the top arms and earn that elusive “elite” label.

He’s returning from extended time off and is as rested as he has ever been at this stage of the season. If Nola wants to take the reins and step up to be the true ace it was always hoped he could be, the Phillies would welcome this with open arms. But this is a challenge Nola has not quite risen to in the past. Could this year be different?

Perhaps the more likely candidate to step into the makeshift ace shoes is Cristopher Sanchez. The 24-year-old has made a Cy Young case in his own right and leaped to second in betting odds for the award following the Wheeler news. Sanchez is posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.088 WHIP with 128 hits allowed and 157 strikeouts tallied across his 150.2 innings pitched. He’s tallied a 5.9 WAR which leads all pitchers and ranks third in the MLB outright.

The one-time All-Star looked to have his breakout season last year, but has taken his game to even greater heights this season. His changeup may very well be the best in baseball and he is painting to corners in a more effective fashion. Sanchez has also pitched with a bit more emotion on the mound this season. Typically stoic, Sanchez has not been shy to let out a scream and beat his chest following big moments. It feels as if everything has clicked for him in a way that most didn’t think would be possible. If Sanchez wants to step up and cement himself as one of the true brightest pitching stars in baseball, there is no clearer chance than right now.

Ranger Suarez also sees his level of expectation scaled up following the rotational shakeup. His velocity has been trending in the wrong direction, but Suarez is a crafty pitcher who has mostly survived this. Control will always be the priority over velocity for the 29-year-old. He is still posting a 3.28 ERA and 3.1 WAR across his first 112.1 innings pitched. Jesús Luzardo has taken some midseason lumps but plenty of teams would sign up for him being their fourth option without a second thought. The raw stuff is there, but some struggles from the stretch and pitch tipping tendencies interrupted what looked to be a legitimate All-Star caliber start to the year.

Even Taijuan Walker has looked the part of a competent MLB pitcher. He’s posting a 3.34 ERA on the season and has allowed just three total runs across his past three starts and 18 innings pitched. This season has been his best stretch with the Phillies by a comfortable margin and he will now be called on to continue producing. It’s a testament to Walker’s production that the Phillies’ Plan A was a six-man rotation in the first place. Rather than holding a collective breath for Walker’s to be removed from the rotation, the Phillies have been convinced enough by his recent performances to go out of their way to keep him a consistent part of the team.

One other key storyline to monitor is the future of Andrew Painter. Considered untouchable at the trade deadline, he remains in the minors but has had a stretch of unsettling starts. Dave Dombrowksi has repeatedly mentioned “July-ish” as the targeted timeline for the top pitching prospect. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber noted in a recent article that:

“The morning after the ominous-sounding diagnosis, with Wheeler set to undergo more tests Monday in Philadelphia, manager Rob Thomson woke up early — even earlier than necessary for an 11:35 a.m. game at Nationals Park — and watched every pitch of Andrew Painter’s start Saturday night in triple A.”

For what it’s worth, Painter went 5 innings in this start, allowing two earned runs, four hits, five strikeouts, and three walks. Unfortunately, this has been one of his better starts of late with the 22-year-old seeing his ERA grow to 5.53 at Lehigh Valley. Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July of 2023 and the Phillies have been extremely cautious in their approach of his development. It was once looked at as a luxury for him to be even in consideration for the MLB roster this season. But the situation has changed and one has to wonder if the plan with him does as well. Painter has not looked the part in recent starts, but would throwing him to the Major League fire accelerate or harm his future outlook? The Phillies are likely asking themselves this same question.

Even following the Wheeler injury, the Phillies have one of the better pitching staffs in the league. But there is no doubt that this is a huge hit to their postseason outlook if he cannot return this year. For the time being, the role of the game one playoff starter is up for grabs and it is up to each member of the Phillies rotation to make their case. Send some good vibes to Wheeler as doctors zero in on what his recovery process will look like and prepare for what could be a career-altering stretch for the remaining healthy arms.

Sean Barnard

Sean Barnard has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and general Philly Sports for over six years in a variety of roles and for multiple outlets. Currently works as a Content Writer for DraftKings Network, Sixers/NBA Insider for Philadelphia's Fox Sports the Gambler, and co-host of Sixers & Phillies Digest on Youtube. Forever Trusting the Process.

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