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Fair Expectations for the Sixers Ahead of the NBA Trade Deadline
By Sean Barnard
Published:
We’re past the midway point of the NBA season and the Philadelphia 76ers have exceeded all fair expectations at this point, which are relatively low for the first time since the fruits of “The Process” ripened. Now the pathway toward the Sixers making some postseason noise is clearer than most would have thought.
While there’s plenty of history that calloused our mindsets and fair reasons to push back on the current outlook, the fact of the matter is the Sixers are currently the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference with a 25-21 record. Tyrese Maxey has taken another leap in his development, Joel Embiid has been more available and playing at a higher level, and V.J. Edgcombe is as polished a player as you could ask for as a rookie.
How the Sixers approach the February 5th trade deadline largely indicates how they view this current outlook. In an Eastern Conference with no perfect teams, do they push more chips in the middle and give this another run around Embiid? Or do they attempt to cut costs and ride out the season as is?
The Finances
The salary cap constraints are guidelines that no fan actually cares about, but steer the decisions internally. While I am no sympathizer to Josh Harris’ pockets, the new CBA has made all of this increasingly complicated.
Sixers Salary Cap Outlook
- $7.5 million over the luxury tax line
- $916,523 below the first apron
- $12.8 million below the second apron
To be clear here, the first apron line is the number the Sixers would need to eclipse before needing to face any roster-building restrictions. They do not have much breathing room here, but will almost certainly make an effort to not take on money in trades at the risk of going over this number.
The luxury tax line is purely one that impacts the organizational balance sheet for the owner’s overall spending. However, “ducking the tax” has become a common theme at the trade deadline for the Sixers. Examples like trading away KJ Martin, Patrick Beverley, and Jaden Springer while attaching draft picks at the same time have occurred in recent years. Harris has stated he is willing to go above this number when the team commands it, but based on the context of this season, it does not feel like a year where this is in the cards.
This is all to say we should be operating with the mindset that the Sixers are likely to prioritize shedding $7.5 million in salary to get below this luxury tax line.
Players Likely on the Go
The biggest hurdle with this goal is how top-loaded the Sixers roster is. Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey are each on their respective max contracts worth over $144 million combined just for this season, or over 90% of the standard salary cap in their own right. Maxey has emerged as a clear face of the franchise, and no team around the league is eager to take on the combined five remaining seasons of Embiid and George’s contracts. They aren’t going anywhere, at least at this deadline. VJ Edgecombe is the next highest-paid player with an $11.1 million number.
Looking beyond those four at Spotrac, there are some more realistic options:
Daryl Morey refused to blink at the negotiation table with Quentin Grimes this past summer, which resulted in the 25-year-old opting in to play on a one-year, $8.7 million deal. Considering the fact that Grimes has come back to Earth of late, averaging 9.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting and 29.8% on three-point attempts over the past 19 games, this was the right call based on the high-figure contract he was requesting. Grimes also holds an inherent no-trade clause by nature of the deal, and it’s a safe bet that he will still be on this roster following the February 5th deadline.
Kelly Oubre Jr. has been a name floated out there in trade rumors, with his $8.4 million salary a pathway to slimming down the Sixers cap outlook. However, Oubre Jr. is also in the midst of what has arguably been a career-best season with averages of 14.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.2 steals while shooting 36.8% on three-point attempts. He has started 19 of the 24 games he has played and has impacted winning at a level that has not always been the case in his career. Oubre Jr. has become a real spark and stable contributor on this roster, and losing him would be a tough pill to swallow.
Andre Drummond has been the most common name cycled through the rumor mill as a potential Sixers exit. It depends on the night and the matchup for whether Nick Nurse elects to roll with Drummond or Adem Bona as the backup center. On a larger scale, Drummond has performed above expectations on the season with averages of 7.0 points and 8.9 rebounds in his 20.0 minutes of action. You can make an argument why it makes sense to look to offload Drummond, but rebounding also continues to be a Sixers weakness, and this would trade away the top rebounding option.
The player who likely moves the needle the most from a trade perspective would be Jared McCain. It has been a nightmare season for the Duke product, and this would be selling at a low point. McCain missed training camp and the start of the season with a torn thumb ligament and has not been able to ever fully get on the right track. If there was a clear missing piece on the Sixers roster, a case could be made, but, realistically, it’s tough to find out who this player is based on the question marks that still exist. McCain still has flashes where you can see the vision, and the Sixers should not be in a rush to move on from young talent. He is coming off two of his better games of the season, and this should be viewed as a launching point for getting back on track, not a post to his trade value.
Kyle Lowry and Eric Gordon have each received plenty of criticism for essentially being wasted roster spots. The two aging veterans have combined for 119 game minutes and 39 total points. Lowry essentially serves as an additional coach and oftentimes is more animated than the staff on the sideline. No team is going to be itching to add him to their roster at this age, and the Sixers seem content to grant him his wish to ride off into hometown retirement. Gordon is a bit of a different story. It feels nearly certain that the Sixers will look to move on from the 18-year veteran. Both Gordon and the Sixers did themselves a favor this offseason by him opting out of his player option to return on a veteran minimum for a slight pay bump that is cheaper against the cap. It almost feels like finding a new destination was a part of this handshake agreement.
It’s also a clear priority for the Sixers to upgrade Dominick Barlow to a standard contract following the deadline. Currently on a two-way deal, Barlow would be ineligible for the postseason due to contract terms, and the Sixers have relied on him as their starting power forward for 30 of the 36 games he’s played. This is more of a matter of timing than anything, with these same salary cap restrictions in mind, and delaying it as long as possible, saving them some money. Jabari Walker also has carved out a significant role on a two-way contract, and the Sixers would seemingly be more than open to handing him a standard deal if an additional roster spot can be freed up. As things currently stand, they could upgrade Barlow to a standard deal once Charles Bassey’s 10-day deal expires, but there is not room for both.
Final Thoughts
The best upgrade at the trade deadline the Sixers could possibly ask for is just getting this team into the postseason at close to full health. At full strength, this Sixers are deep and has the top-end talent to compete with anyone in the East. This has not been seen at a regular enough rate to be overly confident, but this is a season in which it probably makes sense to keep their powder dry.
This is not to say that Morey will just sit on his hands. He has made at least one trade at all five deadlines since coming here and has rightfully built a reputation as one of the more active GMs in basketball. But expect the priority to be shedding some salary and ducking the luxury tax if it is at all possible. This is not necessarily to say this is fully bad. There is a world where the Sixers can slim costs and still create an upgrade (via Fanspo’s trade machine) –
Jay Huff is a personal favorite trade target of mine, averaging 8.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game across his 19.2 minutes on the 11-36 Indiana Pacers. Flipping Drummond and a draft pick for Huff would be an upgrade in the position for a player $2.7 million cheaper. This is not to say the Pacers would be interested, depending on how they view Huff and his two remaining contract years after this season. But the point is, it can be done.
It does feel like this Sixers team could use a bit of a shakeup and spark by adding to the rotation. But expect this to be a milder trade deadline than most would hope for.
Sean Barnard has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and general Philly Sports for over six years in a variety of roles and for multiple outlets. Currently works as a Content Writer for DraftKings Network, Sixers/NBA Insider for Philadelphia's Fox Sports the Gambler, and co-host of Sixers & Phillies Digest on Youtube. Forever Trusting the Process.