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Despite Houston Struggles, the Over is Absolutely in Play for the Phillies Against Braves
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Three days of “The Sky is Falling” baseball will mess with your mind during a 162-game MLB season, especially when you’re dealing with the heat we’ve had this week.
There’s an extra special bout of delirium going through the Phillies fan base right now because of the one run put up over three games in Houston.
Well, let me be the bearer of good news here.
The Phils should light up Atlanta’s Bryce Elder in the series opener at Truist Park on Friday.
I know, I know, there’s a lot of scar tissue built up about slumps and it might seem like the Phils will never score multiple runs ever again.
Enter Elder, who allowed 26 hits and 13 earned runs in 22 June innings. He just got rocked by the Marlins, of all teams, for 10 hits and five earned runs in his last appearance.
Unlike many Braves/Phillies matchups recently, there’s almost no strong batter-versus-pitcher histories on either side with Elder opposed by Mick Abel. Nick Castellanos has the only notable BvP numbers with a pair of home runs in five at-bats.
Castellanos and the other righties in the Phillies lineup are the players to target on Friday. Righties have a .273 batting average against Elder. He’s also allowed six home runs to right-handers.
A combination of Trea Turner, Alec Bohm and Castellanos to record a hit gets you to +125. You add on bet365’s 50 percent Super Boost for Friday’s MLB games to enhance the odds on that Same Game Parlay.
I’d also look into cross-pollinating your SGPs with some Braves hitters since lefties have a .269 average against Abel. Opponents put the ball in play a lot against Abel. He allowed six hits in two of his last three starts.
Matt Olson is the player to target for those splits. I’d add in Ronald Acuna Jr. for any hits or total bases parlay because he is batting .370 in June.
BetMGM has a Home Run Boost available for Friday’s slate. I would recommend going after Turner (+700) or Castellanos (+775) on price alone with the boost. The matchup is solid for both players and the numbers are too high against a pitcher of Elder’s ilk.
I say we have some fun with this game as well, just because the pitching matchup isn’t ideal. An Acuna/Turner/Castellanos HR SGP is at +15000 at BetMGM.
Kinkead: if the Phillies lose again it’s, PA casino apps for me. Get a DraftKings casino promo code here.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.