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Happy Zack Wheeler Day!
By Joe Tansey
Published:
There’s no better person to open up a vital series with the New York Mets than Zack Wheeler. Of course, you want your ace on the mound for any big series, but I mean, just look at the numbers he’s put up in his last three starts against the Mets:
September 22, 2024: 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 8 K
October 5, 2024: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 9 K
April 23, 2025: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 9 K
How could you not love the Phillies money line and most of Wheeler’s props on Friday night? Wheeler’s strikeout prop sits at over/under 6.5, his outs recorded line sits at over/under 18.5 and +130 to record a win. Wheeler cruised over the outs recorded in two of his last three starts against the Mets, but he hasn’t recorded more than 19 outs in four of his last five starts. He’s coming off two solid six-inning starts, but he didn’t get into the seventh in either June start. The over on the strikeout prop looks far more attainable. The Mets just struck out seven times against Chris Sale and eight times versus Spencer Strider in the last two games against the Braves. Wheeler easily cleared the over 6.5 in all three of his last starts against the Mets, and he’s had seven or more Ks in five of his last seven appearances dating back to the start of May.
The win prop has the best odds and I’d target that along with the strikeouts over. The Phils are 6-1 in Wheeler’s last seven starts.
Wheeler’s got a significant edge on the mound against Mets prospect Blade Tidwell. Tidwell allowed six earned runs on nine hits in his lone start in the majors this season on May 4 against St. Louis. He hasn’t had overpowering stuff since returning to the minors either. He let up 12 earned runs on 17 hits across 14.2 innings in June. Lefties have had more success against Tidwell in the minors with a .266 batting average. Bryson Stott and Max Kepler did combine for eight hits in the April series against the Mets, so maybe the Phils get some unsung heroes to step up. I would look more into the Phillies team total, though, just because Tidwell was so bad in his May start.
You can use bet365’s 50 percent super boost to combine Wheeler to get a win, Wheeler 6 strikeouts, the Phillies run line (-1.5) and the Phillies team total over 3.5. That sits at +225 before the boost. BetMGM is offering a Home Run boost. Kyle Schwarber at +260 should be the most bet Phils prop, but I’d look to use that on Kepler at +375. Kepler has hit in eight of his last nine games and went yard three times during that run.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.