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Red-Hot Phillies a Slight Underdog Behind Cy-Juan Walker as Road Trip Shifts to Cincinnati
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies come into Cincinnati with a 6-1 record in their last seven games.
However, they’re a +105 underdog against the Reds because of the Taijuan Walker vs. Andrew Abbott pitching matchup.
Abbott’s been one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL all season. He’s got a 2.34 ERA, and, remarkably, he has a 2.05 ERA in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors.
Walker hasn’t been that bad either in recent weeks. He’s coming off his best outing of the season against the Orioles in which he pitched six shutout frames and allowed just four hits.
Both pitchers have allowed fewer than 15 earned runs over their last 35 innings, so there’s good chance we see a lower-scoring game, especially in the first five innings.
The Over/Under sits at 9.5 and the First Five Innings Over/Under is 4.5 at BetMGM.
It’s worth noting that the Phils hit Abbott hard back in July. He lasted just 3.1 innings after he allowed four earned runs on nine hits, but that was an exception to the strong season he’s having. The Phils haven’t exactly scored with ease during their winning run with four or fewer runs logged in four of the last seven.
Additionally, the full game under is on fire during the streak dating back to last Sunday. The Phils have played in five games with six runs or fewer in the last week.
That’s more of a credit to the Phillies’ pitching staff because the bullpen is freshly restocked and there aren’t as many weak spots in the late innings.
Cincinnati is coming off a 14-run performance in Pittsburgh, but before that, played in eight straight games with seven runs or fewer.
For Pennsylvania sports betting, I would look into the over on the outs recorded prop for both pitchers at bet365.
Walker sits at over/under 14.5 outs, while Abbott is at over/under 17.5 outs.
Abbott’s gotten through the sixth inning in four of his last five starts, while Walker gave the Phillies at least five innings in each of his last three starts.
I’d combine Walker o14.5 outs, Abbott o17.5 outs and the Under 9.5 for bet365’s 30 percent SGP profit boost. The SGP sits at +350 prior to the boost application.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.