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Runs Should Be in the Forecast for Tuesday’s Phillies/Mets Game
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Phillies and Mets fans must both hate how Tuesday’s game at Citi Field could break for them.
Jesus Luzardo and Sean Manaea haven’t been great this season and both lineups have tremendous head-to-head histories against the pair of left-handed hurlers.
Eight Phillies have hit a home run against Manaea. Nick Castellanos leads that group with three homers in 15 at-bats. Four Mets, including Juan Soto and Pete Alonso, homered off Luzardo in their careers.
I would absolutely make the Over 8.5 part of my bet slip at BetMGM on Tuesday night.
Manaea’s allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts. He let up 22 hits and four home runs during that stretch.
Luzardo let up 19 hits in August, and while he’s only allowed eight earned runs this month, there’s still an element of danger to his game, especially when pitching out of the stretch.
As for PA betting promos, I would load up on the best hitters against left-handed pitchers for bet365’s $10 Safety Net Bet.
Trea Turner and Castellanos are the best choices from the Phillies’ lineup. Turner has a .313 average in 16 at-bats versus Manaea, and, as noted above, Castellanos has three career home runs off New York’s Tuesday starter.
Brandon Nimmo (.333) and Francisco Lindor (.238) each have solid head-to-head records against Luzardo and they rank first and third on the Mets rosters in hits against left-handed hitters.
All four players to have 2+ total bases puts you at +2500. I’d use that for the bet365 promo. I’d also take each of them as a straight because the Over 1.5 total bases for each player is a plus-money prop, which is weird because both starters haven’t been THAT lights out.
If you want a tamer bet for the bet365 promo, you can take Turner, Castellanos, Lindor and Nimmo to each record a hit at +325.
As for the full game Over 8.5, I’d use that as a piece for BetMGM’s MLB Parlay Boost Token. I’d use Phillies-Mets Over 8.5 and the Blue Jays and Brewers money lines to get you to +388 and to three legs to fulfill the requirements for the promotion.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.