Union

Even With the Top Seed and Home Field Advantage, the Sportsbooks Don’t Believe in the Philadelphia Union

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Oct 21st, 2025 · 10:05 AM EDT

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The Philadelphia Union might have to borrow Lane Johnson’s dog mask because they’re tied for the fourth-best odds to win MLS Cup despite having the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Here’s the top ten at BetMGM:

• Lionel Messi and Friends Football Club: +450
• Vancouver Whitecaps: +600
• San Diego FC: +650
• LAFC: +700
• Philly Union: +700
• FC Cincinnati: +800
• Minnesota United: +1600
• Seattle Sounders: +1800
• Charlotte FC: +2000
• New York City FC: +2200

The odds do make sense on the surface. Miami has the greatest player of all time and scored 81 goals this season. They had a jam-packed schedule that included the Champions Cup, Club World Cup, and Leagues Cup in addition to MLS play, so now they only have one singular thing to focus on. Vancouver has Thomas Muller and has only lost once since mid-August. San Diego has Hirving Lozano and Anders Dreyer and LAFC is humming with Son Heung-min in the fold now.

So the books are tilting the odds to the teams with the big name superstars, thinking they’ll perform in the postseason.

The Union, meantime, have a very nice path in front of them. They open with the winner of the 8/9 Chicago vs. Orlando game. The U beat both teams in the regular season and should have no issues handling business in the first round. If they advance, they get the Charlotte/NYC winner at home, again two teams they beat at home in the regular season. They would avoid Messi until the conference final, and they’re on the opposite side of the bracket from Nashville, who gave them trouble this season. It will be good for one of Miami and Nashville to exit in the first round, then let the winner slug it out with Cincinnati or Columbus in the conference semifinals.

Ultimately, the odds reflect the Union’s standing as a blue collar team without individual superstars. They have home field and the #1 seed, but they don’t have Messi, Muller, or Son. They don’t have Dreyer, Lozano, Evander, Denis Bounga, Sam Surridge, or Hany Mukhtar. But they’ve got a deep roster of grinders who will run their asses off and press and counter, and it got them 66 points and the second Supporters’ Shield in franchise history. We’ll see if they can keep it going against the leagues’ best.

If you want to throw a unit on Philly at +700, it’s a good price. Otherwise, join me in sitting on the couch with blackjack online casino and online slot games.