Game 2 was the Raptors’ chance to take full control of the series. Kevin Durant was still out, Steph Curry was clearly not 100%, DeMarcus Cousins was still not fully healed, and even Klay Thompson hurt himself early in the 4th quarter.
But Toronto, despite being given every opportunity to mediate Golden State’s huge run in the third quarter and take advantage of some stops in the 4th quarter, couldn’t deliver, dropping Game 2 109-104. The series is now even at one game a piece as the series shifts back to Oakland.
We are obviously still two days away from Game 3 at Oracle Arena, but PointsBet has set early betting lines for Game 3. They currently have the Warriors as the clear favorites at -240 (70.6% in implied probability), whereas the Raptors have +190 odds (34.5% in implied probability). The spread at the moment is 5.5 with the Warriors as the favorite.
In addition, PointsBet still has the Warriors as the overwhelming favorite to win it all at -286 odds (74.1% in implied probability). They have the Raptors at +221 odds (31.2% in implied probability). FiveThirtyEight’s projections currently give the Warriors a 63% to win the title, which is interesting when you take into account the fact that they gave the Raptors a 55% chance to take the series prior to Game 1.
How we got here
Toronto came out strong in Game 1, taking control late in the first half and staving off any and all Warriors runs en route to a 118-109 victory. Golden State had no answers for Pascal Siakam, who dropped 32 points on 14-17 shooting to go along with 8 rebounds. Kawhi had a more modest game by his standards these playoffs, only scoring 23 points, but he had 8 assists, passing out of every double- and triple-team Golden State through at him.
Game 2 looked to be more of the same. Toronto led by as many as 12 in the first half, getting out in transition and quelling Golden State’s offense on the other hand. Steph Curry went without a made field-goal until well into the 2nd quarter. But thanks to the efforts of Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and DeMarcus Cousins, Golden State hung around for a good majority of the first half, cutting Toronto’s lead to five by the end of the half.
The third quarter was an onslaught on behalf of Golden State. They scored the first 18 points of the quarter en route to taking a 13-point lead. Toronto couldn’t buy a make for a majority of the quarter, digging themselves into quite a hole heading into the 4th quarter.
After Klay left the game due to injury, Toronto held Golden State scoreless for over four minutes two-thirds of the way into the fourth. They managed to trim the lead to two on a Danny Green three-pointer with around 30 seconds left. But on the ensuing Warriors possession, Andre Iguodala nailed a dagger three-pointer to put Golden State up five with five seconds left, which ended up being the difference.
Additional betting info courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook released some notable betting trends ahead of Game 3:
|
NBA Finals Winner Bets Since Game 2
|
|
Odds
|
% of Money
|
% of Bets
|
|
GS Warriors
|
-286
|
9%
|
31%
|
|
TOR Raptors
|
+230
|
91%
|
69%
|
|
NBA Finals Game 3 – Spread
|
|
% of Money
|
% of Bets
|
|
Warriors (-5.5)
|
61%
|
67%
|
|
Raptors (+5.5)
|
39%
|
33%
|
A lot of public money on the Raptors, back up to +230 where they started the series. But early public action Game 3 favors the Warriors as the heavy favorite at home.
