Actually, if the Phillies Go After that Cuban Defector They Could Screw Themselves Up a Bit

Yoan Moncada is the new Cuban defector that everyone is freaking out about, and the Phillies probably won’t sign him. Maybe it’s because Ruben only has “one or two” years (or more) left, maybe it’s a money issue, and maybe it’s because, as Ruben said, “we’re not the only team that would be interested in Yoan Moncada.” Even more than that, maybe it’s because signing Moncada would screw up the Phillies’ financials. According to Todd Zolecki, the Phils would incur penalties for signing Moncada:

Moncada is under 23 and has not played five years in the Cuban professional league, so a team will pay a 100 percent penalty to sign him if it exceeds its annual international bonus allotment. The Phillies are less than $100,000 under their $3,221,800 cap for the 2014-15 international signing period, which runs from July 2, 2014, to June 15 of this year. So if the Phils were to pay Moncada a $25 million signing bonus, they essentially would pay $50 million.

There are future considerations, too. If a team exceeds its international budget by 15 percent — a certainty with Moncada — it is prohibited from spending more than $300,000 on any international player for the next two signing periods (2015-16 and 2016-17). In other words, if there are players similar to Moncada down the pike, Philadelphia could not engage any of them until July 2, 2017.

That first one sounds bad, but that’s a one-time payment, so it’s not something I’m worried about. That second one — the inability to engage with other foreign players — is a little worrisome. With the restrictions lowered on Cuban defectors, we’re likely to see more young players leaving the country with a higher frequency. And though it’s not like the Phils have taken runs at Cuban players, or Japanese players, or any other foreign talents really, we could be on the brink of a new era of international talent. And we don’t want to miss out on that.

However, making this deal does seem like a very Ruben Amaro thing to do. Or at least it would if Moncada was about ten years older. Sure, Ruben has made deals before without really thinking about the future and screwed the Phillies up to a point where … well, it’s where we are now. But at least if he did it this time, it would be on a 19-year-old with serious promise. And while Moncada could be a win for Phillies fans, this whole deal feels like a lose-lose for Amaro.