Before the NFL season started, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight said the Eagles had a 63% chance to make the playoffs based on their Elo rating (more on that here). Now, after an 0-2 start (Elo ratings are based off of beating good teams or losing to bad teams, among other things), the Eagles’ playoff chances have dropped to 27%.

According to the updated Elo ratings, the Eagles have the 5th best chance to make the playoffs among 0-2 teams, sporting better odds than only Detroit, New Orleans, Chicago, and the Giants. Two injured quarterbacks, the hapless Lions, and Eli face. That’s who the Eagles are better than. This Jets game is huge.