Don’t Be So Sure the Eagles will Pass All Night

The New York Giants’ pass defense has been terrible all year (304 YPG), and starting CB Prince Amukamara is out injured for tonight’s game.

Meanwhile, they’ve given up the second fewest rushing yards in the NFL, 80.6 YPG, so many writers are predicting that the Eagles will pass all day and forget about the run, especially with their best RB Ryan Mathews a game-time decision.

I don’t think so. The Giants are vulnerable on the ground and I expect Chip Kelly to attack there. Those run defense statistics are misleading, because the Giants haven’t faced many good RBs. Shady was out for Buffalo, and the light had not yet come on for Devonta Freeman when the Giants faced him.

Freeman notched only 1.8 yards per carry in week one (against the Eagles) and 2.1 against NY in week two. Since then he has racked up 462 yards on 84 carries (5.5 YPC).

Last week, though, Carlos Hyde picked up 93 yards against the Giants (4.4 YPC). It was his highest total since week one, and the Giants were hard-pressed to beat the 49ers at home.

New York’s front line is not scary in JPP’s absence, with only 7.0 sacks on the year (tied for last in the NFL). They tend to fade in the second half even against non-tempo teams.

The Eagles’ offensive line finally pulled it together in week 5, after Chip switched to a pass-to-run strategy. If they play that well again this week, there should be a lot of meat on the bone for DeMarco Murray and Darren Sproles to chew on.

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