Hello, web folk. It is me and I have a new pet peeve: sports media people citing offshore sportsbook odds on stupid props as some sort of bastion of space-time inevitability.
Corey Seidman is the latest victim, along with Ryan Lawrence:
The Giants are now the favorite to sign Bryce Harper, per @betonline_ag — 1/1.
Phillies are third at 4/1
— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) February 11, 2019
I thought Vegas took this off the board two weeks ago? Did twitter lie to us?
— Ryan Lawrence (@ryanlawrence21) February 11, 2019
I love Corey – top 3 online Phillies voice along with Jack Fritz and our own Bob Wankel – but these odds mean nothing. Sportsbook.ag, Bovada, BetDSI, Sportsbook.GTFO or, worse Odds Shark, are not “Vegas,” or even regulated sportsbooks— they are offshore books offering odds on trendy topics for the sole purpose of gaining publicity and links, baby. Odds Shark isn’t even a sportsbook— they’re just a website that follows the industry. These are not any of the legal, regulated sportsbooks operating right here in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. It’s not DraftKings or FanDuel or MGM or SugarHouse or Caesars or literally any regulated entity with careful risk assessment that offers well-considered odds, perhaps indicating a likelihood of a certain outcome. Why we, as a species, continue to cite these things is beyond me.
Don’t get me wrong, there is absolutely value in citing odds to glean some understanding of probability, but rarely when it comes to the offshore sites. In fact, I’d wager that they released this line solely to entice dolts in Philly and San Fran to give them some #buzz.
In fact, we received this press release (from their PR consultant), and here’s what it ended with:
If you have any questions, inquiries, or would like unique odds created exclusively for your audience please email us directly.
Yeah, that’s for publicity.
So, no, the Giants are not 400% more likely to land Bryce Harper. These are low-limit props, nothing more. And I don’t suspect there is enough market action to actually sway the line in this direction. Just something to get attention.