The Phillies beat the Nationals into submission last night and remain baseball’s only unbeaten team. They collected 14 hits as a team, Zach Eflin dominated for five innings, and Bryce Harper did what Bryce Harper does– hit dongs.
It was a simply wondrous display of baseball to behold – and no exaggeration – I wish I could somehow turn it into some form of matter, cut it up into 1,000 little pieces, and carry it with me forever. Really, it’s hard to imagine Harper’s D.C. homecoming being any sweeter, but it was if you took advantage of DraftKings Sportsbook’s Bryce Harper Return Boost. They offered boosted odds yesterday on Harper to homer and the Phillies to beat the Nationals at a healthy +1300 payout. Obviously, those things each happened, and so DraftKings paid out over 90k to bettors on a roughly 7k handle. Not bad.
. @DKSportsbook paid out over $90k yesterday on the Phils win-Harper home run odds boost!
— Kyle Scott (@CrossingBroad) April 3, 2019
Seems like a good play with a well-rested Aaron Nola on the mound and Harper looking poised to end the Washington Nationals forever and always during this two-game set.
The Phillies are -137 to win today.
Nola’s 2018 rest splits already appeared in our Morning Wood post earlier, but they’re worth repeating here.
- 4 Days: 13 games, 7-4 record, 2.71 ERA, .201 BAA, 11 HR allowed, .359 SLG%, .611 OPS
- 5 Days: 17 games, 10-1 record, 1.83 ERA, .186 BA, 4 HR allowed, .261 SLG%, .521 OPS
The takeaway? Nola, who’s pretty good in any situation, was simply devastating with an extra day of rest last season. That alone is pretty good reason to feel good about the Phillies today.
Last season, the Phillies were a perfect 3-0 when favored between -130 and -160 on the moneyline in games started by Nola. The Phillies are also 6-2 overall throughout Nola’s career at those numbers. On the flip side, the Phillies were only 5-5 when favored on the road during Nola starts last season. They were also on 6-5 in day games started by Nola as favorites.
While those situational numbers aren’t overwhelming, I’m still rolling with the Phillies to get to 5-0. How can you bet against one of the best pitchers in baseball and a team playing as well as the Phillies right now?
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