The Phillies Are Healthy Underdogs Against The Nationals Tonight, Here’s Why

phillies nationals odds
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies will be an underdog for the first time this season when they face angry Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals, who reportedly offered Bryce Harper a $250 million contract spread out over 52 years this winter. Scherzer is reason enough for the Nationals to be favored at NJ sports betting sites, but Zach Eflin starting for the Phils probably doesn’t help much either. Some things to consider and possible spots to find value.

 

Phillies at Nationals odds

DraftKings Sportsbook: Phillies +160, Nationals -190

PointsBet: Phillies +160, Nationals -191

FanDuel Sportsbook: Phillies +160, Nationals -186

Interestingly, the lined open at -206 for the Nationals, so things have come down a bit in the Phils’ favor.

 

Phils struggle against Scherzer

New Phillies and old Phillies alike struggle against Scherzer, who is good but also angry and apparently sworn to destroy Bryce Harper tonight, saying “this is just Round 1.” Neato, Max, maybe you can puff that out your cheeks as you bear down on the home plate in front of 42 actual fans.

Anyway, he’s good, and here’s how the Phils’ lineup fares against him:

  • Andrew McCutchen: 4-25, 14 K
  • J.T. Realmuto: 3-36, 11 K
  • Maikel Franco: 3-24, 3 K
  • Jean Segura: 1-6
  • Cesar Hernandez: 8-40, 11 K
  • Rhys Hoskins: 0-11, 7 K
  • Nick Williams: 2-6, HR
  • Odubel Herrera: 14-41, 3 2B, 2 HR

Only Nick Williams and Odubel Herrera have his number. Obviously Harper has never faced him.

But no Williams tonight:

 

Zach Eflin

Eflin wasn’t great against the Nationals last year, going 1-1 with a 5.93 ERA. His WHIP was 2.12.

 

Trends

So now you see why the Phils have so much working against them. HOWEVER, there is the genuine possibility of Scherzer being worked up to the point of blowing an actual gasket, insofar as he actually has one. He’s nuts, and the added whatever of Harper and a ton of Phils fans in attendance, and you can see where he could be over-amped.

That’s narrative street.

Here are some real trends.

The Nationals were the sixth least profitable team last year when favored between -170 and -200, and were only 16-11 overall at those prices, which isn’t great for being a heavy favorite.

Scherzer teams are 31-21 in March and April, but that’s only slightly profitable when favoring in the moneyline.  A $100 bettor made $66, which just barely breaks even given the 60% win percentage.

But Scherzer is money when a favorite between -170 to -200. He’s 46-15 in that spot. 75.4%, Holmes.

Washington was 6-2 last year when he was in it.

 

Where to find value

PointsBet’s MLB Parlay of the Day has the Phillies, Yankees and Mets to all win tonight. You can get that for +550 . They got crushed on Opening Day when all three of those teams won:

DraftKings Sportsbook has a FUN little prop for the Phillies first loss:

draftkings sportsbook Phillies first loss odds boost

The better boosts are Harper-centric.

PointsBet:

pointsbet bryce harper odds boost

And DraftKings has a Phillies win and Bryce Harper to hit a home run boosted to +1300 from +1100 . Kind of like a little flier on that.

 

My action

I’m tempted to stay away from this one. Also, I don’t feel like driving over the bridge and PA online sports betting isn’t live yet. But if I were putting down, here’s how I’d do it:

$50 on the Phils outright at +160 where I can get it

$10 on the Phils-to-win-Harper odds boost

You might be able to get the best team in the National League in the midst of a solid start with emotional factors at play at solid odds. And then boost that with a jack from the GOAT who has the most home runs in March-April in Major League Baseball since 2012? Yeah, sure.

 

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7 Comments

  • So Taguchi - Phillies Legend April 2, 2019 at 3:48 pm

    The number was at Nats -205 this morning when I checked and now its -185. That’s all you need to know…bet the Fightins.

    Reply
  • not a troll i promise April 2, 2019 at 3:53 pm

    What are your thoughts on the Sixers “gambling” broadcast? It’s a new approach, but I think Sixers coverage is officially over-saturated (Sixers Outsiders anyone).

    Reply
    • Kyle Scott April 2, 2019 at 4:26 pm

      I think it’s a good idea. I don’t know how good the execution will be– but we’ll have a full review when it airs.

      Reply
  • Damn April 2, 2019 at 4:18 pm

    Nipsey Hussle was killed by Eric Holder!??!
    Always knew Obama’s Attorney General was a corruy, bad dude, but murder?

    Reply
  • Scott April 2, 2019 at 4:28 pm

    Nationals are a bad bet. Bet on the Nats management to underestimate the Phillies like they did in the Harper offer fuckup. Speaking of bad bets, not a good idea to piss off Boras. He is Rendon’s agent too. He is gonna make the Nats pay for the insult to Harper. Yankees looking at Rendon.

    Reply
  • Reggie Noble April 2, 2019 at 8:47 pm

    Did Kyle just start betting this year?

    MLB lines are all about starting pitching, Scherzer vs. Efflin……there’s your answer, don’t try to sound smarter than you are

    Reply
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