Statistically, Where Did the Sixers Excel and Struggle in 2019?
It’s Friday.
I’ve got one more Sixers story for you, and it’s a dive into the numbers. It’s not really a deep dive, since you could really spend days poring over and parsing data; this is more of a shallow dive, kind of like jumping into your neighbor’s pool, going underwater for a few seconds, then coming back up for air.
When looking just beneath the surface, how did the Sixers fare this season? What was good? What was bad? Do the numbers tell us anything about what needs to change next year, to get this team over the jump and into the Eastern Conference Finals?
Using NBA Stats, Here’s how Brett Brown’s team finished and ranked in a number of categories, beginning with:
Traditional stats
- 115.2 points per game (4th)
- 47.1% on field goals (8th)
- 35.9% from three (8th)
- 30.2 three point attempts (19th)
- 27.5 free throw attempts (2nd)
- 77.1% from foul line (16th)
Two things jump at out me here, two disparities.
The first is the fact that the Sixers were the 8th best three-point shooting team while only attempting the 19th most threes per game. That’s fantastic efficiency, unlike the Rockets, who shot 45 three-pointers per game at a 35.6% clip.
Second, the Sixers were a top-three team in getting to the foul line, but only shot 77.1% when they got there. That’s a huge back breaker and it left a lot of points on the board. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons got their FT percentages up by 3 and 4 points this season, respectively, but Ben needs to get into the 65-70% range and Joel can improve on the 80.4% mark he put up in his third NBA year. He’s good enough to hit at 82 to 84%, which would bring him in line with Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns.
- 10.9 offensive rebounds (11th)
- 47.8 total rebounds (4th)
- 26.9 assists (4th)
- 14.9 turnovers (25th)
- 7.4 steals (19th)
- 5.3 blocks (11th)
- 21.3 personal fouls (20th)
- 22.1 fouls drawn (6th)
Turnovers, of course, are always a problem, but the gulf between 25th and 15th is very small. I wrote earlier this year about how the Sixers would become a middle of the pack turnover team if Joel and Ben cut their numbers down by one per game, and looking at the final numbers, that improvement would move them all the way into fourth. Seriously, look:
The Sixers committed 14.9 turnovers per game. If Embiid and Simmons cut their totals down by 1 each per game, 12.9 turnovers moves the squad all the way up to 4th, at 12.9 That’s why I think the Sixers turnover issue is exacerbated a bit, one, because there’s very little separation between top and bottom, and two, because it’s about how many times opponents score off those turnovers. You can help yourself with good transitional and scramble defense.
The rest of those numbers are good. Rebounding is more about % rather than raw totals, since it’s dependent on made or missed shots, so we’ll explore that in:
Advanced stats
- 111.5 offensive rating (8th)
- 108.9 defensive rating (14th)
- 2.6 net rating (11th)
The problems were more on the defensive end this year. The Sixers struggled to defend the perimeter as numerous guards sliced them wide open.
More:
- 64.8 assist percentage (3rd)
- 1.8 assist to turnover ratio (14th)
That A/TO will improve next season, I’m certain.
- 27.8 offensive rebound % (11th)
- 74.1 defensive rebound % (8th)
- 51.7 total rebound % (4th)
- 14.4 turnover % (24th)
- 53.8 effective field goal percentage (8th)
- 57.4 true shooting percentage (6th)
- 102.64 PACE (6th)
The Sixers were a top rebounding team across the board. That’s why game seven against Toronto was disappointing, because you rarely saw them get beat on the glass this year.
Those EFG and true shooting numbers are very good. EFG basically combines two-pointers and three-pointers in a formula that accounts for threes being 1.5 times more valuable. True shooting is similar but incorporates foul shots.
Miscellaneous stats
- 15.3 points off turnovers (23rd)
- 14.1 second chance points (6th)
- 15 fast break points (10th)
- 49.4 points in the paint (14th)
- 17.3 opponent points off turnovers (23rd)
- 12.3 opponent second chance points (7th)
- 14.7 opponent fast break points (22nd)
- 51.2 opponent points in the paint (24th)
Room to improve here.
The Sixers are good offensively in transition but not great defensively, which is a product of their turnover issue. They do not, however, allow a lot of second chance points due to strong defensive rebounding.
Points in the paint is a bit misleading here, because the Sixers like to push opponents off the three point line. Therefore, it’s a positive that opponents were scoring 50+ points in the paint per game, vs. slicing up the Sixers on the perimeter, where they really struggled.
Opponent stats
These numbers show what other teams did against the Sixers, per game, with the ranks referring to Philly:
- 91.5 field goal attempts (26th)
- 45.5 field goal percentage (10th)
- 30 three point attempts (6th)
- 34.2 three point percentage (4th)
Okay, so opponents shot a ton of field goals per game, #1, due to Sixer turnover issues and #2, because the Sixers pushed the pace, resulting in more possessions for each team.
But they were very good in limiting three point attempts. Opponents only shot 30 per game, which was 6th fewest in the NBA. And opponents only shot 34.2% on those looks, so the Sixers finished this season as a top-five team at defending the three-point line.
- 12.7 opponent turnovers per game (27th)
- 7.7 steals per game (21st)
- 4.1 blocks (4th)
The Sixers can do better next season at forcing turnovers and limiting opponent steals. They do not, however, get their shots blocked very often.
Random stats that don’t fit into other categories
- 66.7 clutch win percentage (2nd)
The Sixers had the second best winning percentage in games where the score was + or – five points with five minutes or fewer remaining in the fourth quarter. Denver was #1.
- 5 isolation possessions per game (4th fewest)
- 13.1 pick and roll ball handler possessions per game (2nd fewest)
They just were not a pick and roll or isolation team. They added more PNR with Jimmy Butler, but it’s not part of Brett’s base offense. This is Brett’s offense at work:
More:
- 12.3 post ups per game (2nd most)
- 20.8 spot ups per game (6th fewest)
- 9.5 hand offs per game (most in the NBA)
- 9.9 cut possessions per game (3rd most)
- 6.6 put backs per game (10th most)
- 10.1 screen assists (8th best)
- 0.26 charges drawn (28th)
- 12.9 deflections (18th)
- 62.8 contested shots (18th)
None of this should surprise anyone. They posted Joel Embiid and ran hand offs. They grabbed offensive rebounds. Most of their play type possessions are linked very closely to the Golden State Warriors, who run a similar offense to the Sixers.
They can, however, force more deflections, steal more balls, and draw more charges. Some of the peripheral defensive traits that Robert Covington and Ersan Ilyasova provided were missing this year. A lot of the Sixers’ defensive identity was trying to push opponents off the three point line and into the paint, where Embiid was patrolling. That resulted in some really strenuous pick and roll possessions, but the Sixers analytically are willing to die by mid-range two point shots.
Super ultra advanced tracking stats and whatnot
I won’t get into these, because there’s no real end point. You could go on for days.
I will instead refer you to the NBA Stats tracking page, where you can sniff around on your own.
Conclusions
The Sixers were top ten across the board in most offensive categories. It was the defense that let them down earlier in the season, while the health of Joel Embiid and lack of 4th quarter playmaking in games four and seven ultimately let them down in the Toronto series.
Foul shooting needs to improve. Limiting turnovers, just by 1-2 more per game next season, will cut down on opponent possessions and transitional opportunities. This team’s identity remains motion, movement, spacing, and pace, and we’ll see how that evolves, depending on whether or not JJ Redick and Jimmy Butler return.
Overall, just seeing individual improvement from Embiid and Simmons will help kickstart some of the static offensive possessions we saw in numerous games. Adding Zhaire Smith to the mix and finding another two-way wing will really help improve the issues with defending point guards and tricky shooting guards and combo forwards.
Statistically, the Sixers looked pretty good this year. The concerns are there, but nothing should really surprise anybody. Beyond the free agency situations of Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris, it’s really just about Ben and Joel taking the next step forward.