Phillies Betting Preview: Long Live the Curveball Machine?

Phillies Betting Preview: Long Live the Curveball Machine?
PHOTO CREDIT: ERIC HARTLINE-USA TODAY SPORTS

Like I said yesterday, no matter how bad things may seem, you can always count on the Mets to somehow be even worse. A slumping Phillies offense smashed 19 hits, including four homers, against an overmatched Mets pitching staff en route to a 13-7 win that snapped a seven-game losing streak. Maybe it was the much talked about curveball machine that got them going? Probably not. By my count, four players used it during their pregame routine and two of them (Andrew Knapp and Sean Rodriguez) didn’t factor in the outcome. Maybe it was the debut of this bamboo plant?

Whatever. The Phillies will take it as they try tonight to win consecutive games for the first time since 6/4-6/8 when they won four straight. You could say that it has been awhile. It will be Jake Arrieta on the mound for the Phillies who will be opposed by Walker Lockett for the Mets. Lockett is making his second start in place of the injured Noah Syndergaard and will be looking to bounce back after allowing six earned runs while recording only seven outs against the Cubs in his debut.

Those of you in Pennsylvania, find out more about how to get in on the action on our PA sports betting page.

Those of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page.

Phillies Mets Odds

Here are the Phillies-Mets odds for tonight’s game.

SugarHouse Sportsbook PA

Run Line Money Total
Phillies -1.5 (+118) -159 O 10.5 (-109)
Mets +1.5 (-136) +140 U 10 (-107)

DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies -1.5 (+117) -159 O 10.5 (-112)
Mets +1.5 (-136) +140 U 10.5 (-109)

PointsBet

Run Line Money Total
Phillies -1.5 (+111) -165 O 10.5 (-110)
Mets +1.5 (-131) +140 U 10.5 (-110)

If you’re looking to take the Phillies on the moneyline, you can get the best price at DraftKings Sportsbook or SugarHouse Sportsbook.  As of 10am this morning, PointsBet, DraftKings, and Sugarhouse are each offering the Mets at +140. If you’re looking to play the under, PointsBet is giving you a total of 10.5, so take advantage of it. Meanwhile, if you’re on another high-scoring affair tonight, then roll with DraftKings or Sugarhouse.

General Betting Trends

If you’re a Phillies fan, you’re probably feeling a lot better about the team this morning after last night’s performance, but momentum is fickle and encouraging performances don’t always carry over. I know it’s easy to look at last night’s game and say, “Wow. They looked competent, let’s get excited,” but let’s try to step away from the emotional response for a moment. Am I setting you up for disappointment? Actually, no. There are some favorable trends working in the Phillies’ favor tonight. Now you can get excited.

Let’s first look at tonight’s odds. The Phillies opened early this morning as high as -177 on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, but that line has since crept down to the -160 area. Keep an eye on that moneyline throughout the day because the Phillies are 9-4 this season at home when favored by more than -160. More convincingly, the Phillies are 7-0 at home this season when favored between -160 and -180 on the ML.

On the other hand, the Mets have struggled as considerable road underdogs. They are only 1-5 this season as a moneyline underdog between +140 and +165.

Big Offense, Big Letdown?

Obviously, the Phillies’ lineup has struggled during the month of June. They entered last night near the bottom of the league in runs scored, batting average and slugging percentage for the month, but broke out in a big way last night. That got me wondering. How have the Phillies performed after putting up a big number? For years, it seemed like the Phillies would struggle after a big outburst, but they have actually been pretty good in this spot since Gabe Kapler took over. Philadelphia is 10-5 dating back to the start of the 2018 season after scoring 10 or more runs their previous game, including a 4-2 record this season. 

From a more general perspective, teams favored between -160 and -185 on the moneyline that are coming off a game in which they scored at least 10 runs this season are 14-7 (+$108), while all favorites are 25-12 when coming off a game in which they scored 13 or more runs. That’s a $334 profit for the average $100 bettor. What am I getting at here? Basically, favored teams coming off of big offensive performances have won nearly 66% of the time this season. Something to consider ahead of this one.

Prediction

The Phillies have been known to run up the pitch counts of young opposing starters early in games. I can see that happening here, and I can also see the Phillies offense having another solid performance this evening. Here’s my problem. That -159 price is quite expensive considering this team’s overall recent lack of success, and I have a hard time making run line bets with the Phillies because their starting pitching has been so erratic and because of their staff-wide propensity to yield the long ball. I’d probably stay off of this one tonight, but if you’re looking for a side, I think the Phillies will grab their second straight win. 

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1 Comment

  • Kate Devlin June 25, 2019 at 10:44 am

    I’m not much of a gambler, but I bet tonight’s game will be entertaining!
    Have a really great Tuesday, folks!

    – Kate

    Reply
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