I’ll start this one today by telling you that I’m not exactly sure betting on a Phillies game right now is the most palatable proposition. Losers of seven straight games, Gabe Kapler’s team isn’t exactly inspiring much confidence. The Phillies’ offense managed only eight runs over the weekend, including just four hits in Sunday’s loss that solidified the Marlins’ first sweep of the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park since 2009. Making matters worse—far worse—the pitching staff yielded 16 hits and five walks yesterday to a Marlins offense that came into the weekend 29th in total runs scored and dead-last in team OPS. Just how bad has it been for the Phillies? They’ve lost 9 of their last 10 games, 16 of 22 overall, and are 6-14 in the month of June. That’s the worst record in the National League this month, and only the Tigers and Orioles—two teams that are trying to lose on purpose—have been worse across all of baseball.
On the other hand, it’s like the old roulette theory. You walk up to the table, see black hit seven straight times, and, like, red has gotta hit at some point…right? Actually, oddsmakers do in fact like red to hit tonight, which would be almost impossible to believe except that the Phillies welcome to town the New York Mets. No matter how bad things may seem, you can always count on the Mets to somehow be even worse.
Mets are toxic right now. Lots of distrust among coaching staff, players and front office. Possible that Mickey Callaway is trying to get fired, hence today’s blowup with Tom Healey of Newsday.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) June 24, 2019
After blowing a late lead in an eventual 5-3 loss to the Cubs, Mets manager Mickey Callaway called Newsday’s Mets beat writer Tim Healey a “motherfucker,” among other things, while Mets pitcher Jason Vargas had to be restrained from going after Healey. Obviously, because that’s completely ridiculous, the Mets had to issue both a personal and public apology to Healey. Turmoil aside, also working against the Mets is that, well, they’re not very good, so we have a hell of a baseball game on tap this evening at 7:05 in South Philly when Zach Eflin takes the hill against Steven Matz.
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Phillies Mets Odds
Here are the Phillies-Mets odds for tonight’s game.
|Phillies||-1.5 (+155)||-130||O 10 (-108)|
|Mets||+1.5 (-182)||+115||U 10 (-107)|
|Phillies||-1.5 (+155)||-130||O 10 (-110)|
|Mets||+1.5 (-182)||+115||U 10 (-109)|
|Phillies||-1.5 (+150)||-131||O 10 (-110)|
|Mets||+1.5 (-180)||+111||U 10 (-110)|
If you’re looking to take the Phillies on the moneyline, you can get the best price at DraftKings Sportsbook or SugarHouse. You also get a slightly better payout (+115) with the Mets at those books. The totals market is set at 10 across all of the major books as of this morning and the prices have remained relatively similar.
General Betting Trends
The Phillies are only 11-14 against the Mets since the start of the 2018 season. The average $100 moneyline bettor backing the Phillies would be down $564 in those 25 games, making the Mets the Phillies’ least profitable opponent since Kapler took over. Things have been a little bit better at Citizens Bank Park where the Phillies are 7-5 on the moneyline (+$40) since the start of the 2018 season. Despite the Phillies’ general lack of success against the Mets, they are 4-2 in games started by Mets pitcher Steven Matz and 3-1 at Citizens Bank Park. Matz has made two starts against the Phillies this season, both coming back in April, with polar opposite results. He failed to record an out back on April 16 when the Phillies hung eight runs on him in the first inning, including two homers. Matz, however, bounced back in his very next start on April 22 when he held the Phillies to only one earned run over six innings at Citi Field.
Opposing Matz will be Zach Eflin, who is 2-0 against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park and 0-3 at Citi Field dating back to the start of last season, so take note of those home/road splits. In his only start against New York this season, Eflin gave up four earned runs in only four innings of work as the Phillies lost 9-0.
I wanted to take a look at how teams, including the Phillies specifically, perform situationally when losing seven straight games. Let’s start with the Phils’ recent history. They are 3-6 the last nine times they entered a game having lost seven straight, but they are 2-1 when those games are played at home. From a more general perspective, since the start of the 2005 baseball season, teams attempting to stop a seven-game skid are 143-195 (.423 winning-percentage). When those teams are at home, they are 87-100 (.465), and when they are favored at home, they are 48-42. None of those records are particularly inspiring, but when a .500 or better team that has lost seven straight games is the home favorite and playing a team .500 or worse, those teams are 6-4 dating back to 2005. Perhaps more telling is that home favorites playing .500 or better that are also on a seven-game losing streak are 14-7 against all opponents. One other somewhat specific trend that I’ll only mention simply because it’s been strong is that NL East teams that are favored at home on a seven-game losing streak are 7-2 dating back to June 2006.
Like I said up top, the Phillies are a tough bet right now. Not only are they playing a poor, uninspired brand of baseball, but it has also become apparent in recent weeks that this team lacks depth and has serious talent deficiencies. And yet, I still like them tonight. Yes, the Phillies are rife with issues, but up until this past weekend they had been one of baseball’s best home teams. They also have Zach Eflin on the mound who has been their most consistent starter this season. Plus, it’s the Mets. I’ll grab a reasonable -130 on the moneyline and expect the losing streak to stop tonight.