Phillies Nationals Betting Preview: Odds, Trends, Pick

PHOTO CREDIT: BILL STREICHER-USA TODAY SPORTS

The banged up and slumping Phillies got a bit of a reprieve the last two nights from Mother Nature as poor weather conditions forced back-to-back postponements in Washington. Catcher J.T. Realmuto, who would’ve been out of the lineup each of the last two nights after taking a foul tip straight off, well, you know, is back behind the dish for Game 1 of today’s day-night double-header with the Nationals. Despite the Phillies’ recent struggles, they sit only 2 1/2 games behind the Braves in the NL East as play opens today, while the surging Nationals come in at 33-38 and look to get back into the division race. Let’s take a look at how the two teams stack up in the afternoon matchup–weather permitting.

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Phillies Nationals Odds

Here are the Phillies-Nationals odds for Game 1 of today’s double-header:

DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-130) +160 O 9.5 (-115)
Nationals -1.5 (+107) -190 U 9.5 (-106)

PointsBet

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-120) +155 O 9.5 (-115)
Nationals -1.5 (+105) -186 U 9.5 (-105)

There are some pretty steep odds in this one as the Nationals come in as a strong favorite. If you’re looking to back the Phillies on the moneyline, you can get the best payout at DraftKings Sportsbook, while you can save a little on the Nationals with PointsBet. The totals market is fairly similar at both sportsbooks, with the over being the slightly more pricey side.

Phillies-Nationals Lineups

Analysis: Cesar Hernandez had been struggling out of the leadoff spot recently, so the Phillies hope he can get it going in the unfamiliar No. 8 spot where he is hitting .286 this season in two games. Roman Quinn is back and will play for the Phillies for the first time since April 24. Jean Segura has been ice-cold lately, hitting only .185 with a .614 OPS in 62 plate appearances this month. He’s got a good matchup today against Nationals starter Patrick Corbin, who he is 7 for 11 against in his career. Bryce Harper has also had success against Corbin, going 5 for 13 with three doubles.

Zach Eflin has been the Phillies’ best starter this season. He’s 6-6 with a 2.81 ERA in 13 starts and is 2-0 with a 4.05 ERA in three career starts at Nationals Park.

Analysis: Trea Turner has a .997 OPS in 64 plate appearances this month. Gerardo Parra is 3 for 4 in his career against Eflin with a homer, while Anthony Rendon is 4 for 10 with a double.

Corbin, who signed a six-year deal worth $140 million this past offseason with Washington, has underwhelmed thus far. He’s 5-5 with a 4.11 ERA, which is decent, but has struggled in June. In two starts this month, he’s allowed 10 earned runs in only 10 IP, including three homers and seven walks. Ugly.

General Betting Trends

The Phillies are only 3-6 this season when a moneyline underdog of +130 or greater. If the moneyline closes in the same neighborhood as the current +160, this game will mark only the fourth time this season that the Phillies will be an underdog of greater than +140. They are 1-2 this season in such games. They lost twice in Los Angeles earlier this month, but did beat Washington on the road, 8-2, back on April 2.

Despite Eflin’s success this season, the Phillies are only 6-7 in his 13 starts and only 1-4 in his starts as an underdog. Meanwhile, Washington is only 5-6 as favorites when Corbin starts.

The Nationals have not been a good bet as a moneyline favorite this season. They are only 21-22 in this role, netting a $100 per game bettor -$846 in those 43 games. They are also only 3-5 this season when favored by -190 or more and 5-5 when favored between -170 and -200. That’s…not good. They’ve also struggled against right-handed starters at home this season, going only 10-14.

While all of that is working in the Phillies’ favor, they are only 3-8 against left-handed starters on the road this season and a miserable 1-7 against left-handed starters on the road as an underdog.

Prediction

Certainly, Corbin hasn’t thrown well during the month of June, but this is a good matchup for him. The Phillies haven’t played well lately and they’ve been flat-out terrible against LH starters on the road this season. I’m not interested in dropping -190 on Washington, but I’ll grab them at a more reasonable price on the run line and lock them in to grab Game 1 of today’s double-header.

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1 Comment

  • Tiger Beat Truther June 19, 2019 at 2:29 pm

    I appreciate the effort but is it just me or does no one reads these betting articles? People come to this site for the comments and these betting posts tend to not inspire very many. Also, can you clarify the rumor I saw that Kinkee writes for Tiger Beat? He keeps editing comments that ask about it…how rude!

    Reply
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