Fresh off a truly memorable Masters Tournament in which Tiger Woods emerged from the shadows after years of professional and personal turmoil to claim his fifth green jacket, the 2019 U.S. Open will look to match the drama. As usual, Woods will be the headline story as he attempts to win his 16th major, but he is just one of the stories this weekend at Pebble Beach. It figures to be a hotly contested and wide-open tournament, and, of course, thanks to legal sports betting in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, there’s plenty of opportunity for fans and bettors alike to add some additional intrigue to the viewing experience. That said, let’s take a look at the odds, favorites, longshots, and our betting picks.
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering up Tiger Insurance. You can get your bet refunded up to $50 if you bet on Tiger to win and he finishes 2-10 here.
Those of you in Pennsylvania, can find out more about how to get in on the action on our PA sports betting page.
Those of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page.
Here are the 2019 Masters Outright Betting Odds at leading legal online sportsbooks.
You can also bet on individual players based on finish. Take a look at SugarHouse’s finishing odds:
|Golfer||Top 5||Top 10||Top 20|
Of course, it’s important to shop around and get the best payouts and prices when making your U.S. Open picks. There are plenty of opportunities out there to maximize value this weekend due to some wild market variance on notable golfers, including Phil Mickleson:
Phil Mickelson odds to win the #USOpen …..
— Bet New Jersey (@BetNewJersey) June 10, 2019
You can get more information on that variance over at BetNewJersey.com.
2019 U.S. Open breakdown
The United States Open Championship (not to be confused with “the Open,” which is played overseas) returns to venerable Pebble Beach this week. Great players win here at our national Open (Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Tom Kite.) The course also hosts the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am every winter season. Anyone can win there in the early season (Ted Potter Jr., Vaughn Taylor, D.A. Points) when the course is soft and wet. It takes a man to tame it when it’s firm and fast. Ahem.
Here is our evaluation of some of the betting favorites this week, and the reasons they will or won’t win the season’s third major championship. Odds via PointsBet.
Brooks Koepka (+900)
Why he will win: All he does is win majors, especially this one and the PGA Championship, and he already has one major title this year.
Why he won’t win: Koepka was iffy at the Canadian Open last week. Also, he started the PGA like a monster but almost threw the tournament away on the back nine. Still, who are we kidding? Pick against him at your own risk.
Rory McIlroy (+850)
Why he will win: Rory is hot right now, coming off a dominant performance in suburban Toronto at the Canadian Open last weekend. He has won majors, his head seems to be in a good place, and he is putting well too.
Why he won’t win: McIlroy posts too many opening rounds over par in major championships, as he did at the Masters in April. Additionally, his significant length is blunted as an advantage by this tight, shotmaker’s course.
Dustin Johnson (+850)
Why he will win: DJ almost chased Brooks Koepka down at the PGA on Sunday and has an all-around game right there with Koepka and McIlroy. This tournament probably owes him after the way the U.S. Open ended at Chambers Bay in 2015.
Why he won’t win: The only reason Graeme McDowell won the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach is because of Johnson’s complete collapse in the fourth round. That 82 he signed for has to be bouncing around in the back of his head to this day. Johnson is also occasionally spotty on the little curling putts you have to make on this course.
Tiger Woods (+1100)
Why he will win: How much time do you have? He won this tournament at this venue in record fashion. He’s a California native who played college golf not far from Pebble Beach, at Stanford. Oh, yeah, I almost forgot: He is the greatest player in the modern era and he has already won a major this year.
Why he won’t win: As Tiger putts, so he goes, and the touchy two-footers that Pebble invariably presents may test his old nerves. Tiger missed the cut at the PGA just last month. And we cannot ignore the small chance that his Masters victory this year was the equivalent to that of Jack Nicklaus in 1986, i.e., the last great hurrah for an all-time champion.
Patrick Cantlay (+1800)
Why he will win: If you like players on the come, this may be your guy. Cantlay’s recent form is scorching, with a win at the Memorial and a T3 at the PGA Championship. Cantlay is a possible star in the making, another player without a discernible weakness — though his ceiling is a little lower than these other guys before him.
Why he won’t win: Patrick Who? Guys like this don’t break through at iconic courses like Pebble…they do it at places like Olympic or Pinehurst.
Jordan Spieth (+1800)
Why he will win: Speith seems to be coming out of his recent funk just in time. He remains a splendid putter, and great putting is a huge advantage at Pebble. His comparative lack of length off the tee is not a real problem as there are not that many monstrously long holes at Pebble. Additionally, Masters champions generally seem to play well at Pebble — Phil Mickelson has won the AT&T five times, though he’d surely give all five of those wins away for a U.S. Open title.
Why he won’t win: Spieth is probably not accurate enough off the tee to take advantage of his putter. He may still also still be a year away from being able to close at a major again.
Justin Rose (+2500)
Why he will win: Rose is another elite talent and past U.S. Open winner. He won at Merion in 2013; that golf course has enough similarities to Pebble (not punishingly long but a small ballpark with very tricky greens) to make Rose a useful pick.
Why he won’t win: Euros are not exactly thriving here in the past four years, with each of the past four U.S. Opens having been won by Americans. Rose has had a steady, money-making 2019 but was poor by his high standards in the year’s first two majors.
Rickie Fowler (+2500)
Why he will win: Fowler is yet another golf star born in California (Anaheim, to be exact.) He still hasn’t shaken that “best player never to win a major” label, but the ninth-place finish at the Masters showed that he’s still just a shot here or there from breaking through…maybe.
Why he won’t win: His best finishes in majors continue to be: 2nd at the 2018 Masters, T2 at the 2014 U.S. Open, T2 at the 2014 Open Championship, T3 at the 2014 PGA Championship. Moreover, this golf course doesn’t especially suit his game, which is a little bit of bomb and gouge followed by elite putting. There will be a lot of places where Fowler either can’t hit driver or will wish he didn’t this week.
Xander Schauffele (+2500)
Why he will win: Schauffele is another star in making, another talent in full. He already has two wins this season and he finished T2 at the Masters. He is currently fourth in the FedEx Cup standings, if you are into that. At just 25 years old, he is young and pretty fearless. All of the arguments you can make for Cantlay, you can definitely make for Schauffele.
Why he won’t win: Tiger won here as a relative baby in 2000, but most U.S. Open winners at Pebble are battle-hardened. If you’re going to pick Schauffele, you might as well pick all of the well-rated young Americans (Koepka, DJ, Cantlay, Spieth, Justin Thomas and Schauffele) and hope to make a marginal profit knowing you’ll lose a lot of units.
Phil Mickelson (+4000)
Why he will win: No one wants a U.S. Open victory more. No one has suffered more at this major. Mickelson is yet another California native. At 48 years of age — turning 49 on Sunday — Mickelson knows too well that he is running out of chances. He is still a special wedge and short iron player, and crafty play can be useful at Pebble.
Why he won’t win: If it was going to happen it would’ve happened at Pinehurst against the late Payne Stewart, or at Winged Foot against Geoff Ogilvy, or at Merion in 2013. Those were three stone cold gag jobs. There are only so many chances any one guy can ask for to win this tournament. And his short putting remains a concern.
Dustin Johnson exorcises his Pebble Beach past and lifts the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday.