Colts vs. Chiefs Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Picks

Colts vs. Chiefs Betting Preview
PHOTO CREDIT: JAY BIGGERSTAFF-USA TODAY SPORTS

The Week 5 showdown between the Colts and Chiefs is a big game and not just because it’s a rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional Round, or because it’s on Sunday Night Football. No, this game is big because it also marks the first time that Colts fans can legally wager on their team since Indiana online sports betting went live earlier this week.

If you happen to be in the state’s limits and are looking to jump in on the action, be sure to sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana and get your first bet matched up to $200– it’s the best sports betting app in the state.

As for where your potential wagers should go, let’s find out with our Colts vs. Chiefs betting preview.

If the Colts are hoping for a different outcome from their 31-13 loss at Arrowhead Stadium last January, then they’re going to need a much quicker start this time around. The Chiefs quickly jumped ahead 14-0 after outgaining the Colts 185-12 in the first quarter. They also held Indy’s Andrew Luck-led offense without a completion until early in the second quarter.

From there, Patrick Mahomes methodically picked apart the Indianapolis secondary, while Luck could never rebound against a fiery Chiefs defense in what turned out to be (at least for now) his final NFL game.

Fast-forward a little less than nine months and these two teams appear headed in different directions.

The Chiefs have jumped out to a perfect 4-0 start thanks to an electrifying offense led by the MVP-caliber play of Mahomes, who is currently on pace to eclipse 6,000 passing yards and has yet to throw an interception.

Crazy.

As for the Colts, they’ve struggled to find consistency through four weeks, alternating wins and losses as they try to find their footing after Luck’s stunning decision to call it a career in late-August.

Things were looking good for Indianapolis following a Week 1 overtime loss on the road against the Chargers as they picked up a pair of impressive wins, but the good vibes were short-lived after a miserable loss at home to the Raiders last week.

Can the Indy jump start its season with an upset win (or at least a cover) at Arrowhead Stadium, or will Kansas City remain perfect? Let’s find out.

How to Bet on Colts-Chiefs

A postseason primetime rematch provides plenty of reason to bet on this game, but with mobile sports wagering in Indiana now live and legal, all eyes will be on this matchup come Sunday night.

That being said, if you’re in the state of Indiana, we strongly suggest DraftKings Sportsbook for its easy-to-use interface, fun betting promos, and generous welcome offers.

DraftKings is offering +1000 odds (boosted from +400) on the Colts moneyline with a max bet of $10, meaning you can win $100 on a $10 bet if the Chiefs pull it out.

If you’re in the state of New Jersey, checkout our NJ online sports betting page. Those of you in Pennsylvania, be sure to check out our comprehensive guide of PA online sportsbooks. Both of these pages will help you find sportsbook reviews, the best welcome offers, and best bonuses.

 

How to Watch Colts-Chiefs

Date: Sunday, October 6

Time: 8:20 p.m. EST

Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)

Network: NBC

Announcers: Al Michaels (play-by-play), Cris Collinsworth (analyst), Michele Tafoya (sideline)

Radio: 101 The Fox (Kansas City), 107.5 The Fan (Indianapolis), Westwood One (National)

Sirius/XM: Channel 225 (streaming on Channel 813)

 

Colts-Chiefs Weather

As a bettor, I can’t think of too many things worse than wagering on a big-play offense or a play on the over only to find out the game is going to be played in a stiff wind or driving rainstorm, so let’s take a quick look at this Sunday night’s weather forecast at Arrowhead Stadium.

Temperatures will reach the upper 60s in Kansas City on Sunday afternoon and will dip into the upper 50s at night with mostly clear skies expected throughout the game.

Perfect.

 

Colts-Chiefs Odds

Here are the current Colts-Chiefs betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Colts     +11 (-112)  +460   O 56 (-112)
Chiefs      -11 (-109)   -590   U 56 (-109)

 

 

Win Probability

Nobody is ever going to doubt the precision and overall acumen of oddsmakers, but occasionally, bettors are presented with point spreads and odds that present value.

For this reason, it’s always worth at least a look at the current implied win probability of the moneyline odds and point spreads around various betting markets to see how they stack up with FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread and win probability projections.

Before we do that, heed the following disclaimer that ELO and other similar models aren’t an exact science, nor are they necessarily accurate predictors of a game’s outcome. Still, we believe it’s a worthwhile exercise to compare the two sources in search of possible betting value.

As for this game, the ELO projection has the Chiefs favored by 10.5 points and at an 82% win probability. With the Chiefs currently favored by 11 points at most legal sportsbooks, the ELO measure is pretty much in lockstep with the oddsmakers’ lines, but there could be some slight value on the Colts.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of DraftKings’ Chiefs -590 moneyline odds is 85.5%, which means that in relation to the ELO projection, the price on the Kansas City moneyline is a bit juiced up.

As for the Colts, the implied probability of their +460 moneyline odds is 17.5%, which is pretty much right in line with the ELO numbers. Therefore, there’s no notable value on the board in relation to this outside model.

 

Colts vs. Chiefs Betting Preview

For the Chiefs, a win doesn’t always have to be a beautiful work of art. You know what I mean?

Not quite sure that’s how it goes, but maybe Mozart did a little painting in his spare time. You never know, I guess.

Anyway, the Chiefs managed to put 34 points on the board last week at Detroit, but it was a struggle at times for Andy Reid’s usually high-octane offense. I know that’s a pretty high bar that has been set, but Patrick Mahomes did fail to throw a touchdown pass for only the third time in 21 starts and his 57.14% completion percentage was the third-lowest of his career.

Even despite his “off day” in which he didn’t put up video game numbers, Mahomes has completed 67.9% of his passes for 1,510 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. That’s ridiculous, as has been the entire Kansas City offense.

Here’s a brief look at what it has accomplished through the season’s first quarter:

  • 33.8 points per game (t-1st)
  • 7.4 yards per play (1st)
  • 3 sacks allowed (t-1st)
  • 478.4 yards per game (2nd)
  • 26 first downs per game (2nd)

That output has been more than enough for the Chiefs’ vulnerable 19th-ranked scoring defense that’s allowing 23.5 points per game.

Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off a brutal loss at home last week against a Raiders team doesn’t win on the road. The defense allowed 188 rushing yards and the offense committed two killer turnovers, one a backbreaking pick-six gifted by Jacoby Brissett:

That loss killed the momentum temporarily ignited by Indy’s two-game winning streak, and it also took some of the shine off of a Colts-Chiefs matchup that would’ve been between two first-place teams.

 

Betting Trends

Why Backing the Colts is a Good Bet

Indy’s Head-to-Head History

The Colts are 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games against the Chiefs, including 7-2 ATS over their last nine games at Arrowhead Stadium.

Big Red Hasn’t Been Great as a Big Favorite

The Chiefs are only 3-6 ATS under Reid when favored by 10 points or more.

The Chiefs are also only 1-3 ATS under Reid when favored by eight points in Mahomes starts.

A Tricky Primetime Spot

Teams that won their previous game on the road and are favored by 10 or more points returning home in primetime games are only 6-12 ATS.

Good Dogs

Frank Reich’s teams are 4-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.

The Colts have covered five of their last seven games as a road underdog.

 

Why Backing the Chiefs is a Good Bet

Reid Good in Primetime Games

The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS under Reid in primetime games at Arrowhead Stadium.

Undefeated Teams Play Well in this Spot

Undefeated home favorites of 11+ points that are returning home off of a road win are 22-10-1 ATS overall and 18-11 ATS when favored between 10-13 points.

Troubling Trends for Indy

There are some trends that are severely working against the Colts this week:

  • Road underdogs of 10+ points that lost their previous game as a favorite are 25-41-2 ATS overall and 18-32-2 ATS in conference games.
  • Road underdogs of 11+ that lost their previous game as a favorite are 12-23 ATS overall and 10-21 ATS when an underdog of between exactly 11-14 points. They’re also 1-6 ATS dating back to the start of the 2016 season.
  • Road underdogs of 11+ points that lost their previous game as a favorite are 2-5 ATS in primetime games dating back to the 2005 season.

Yikes.

 

Some Thoughts on the Total

The total in this one has reached as high as 57 points throughout the week and currently sits at 56.5 points. Keep an eye out to see if it creeps back up there. If it does, know this:

Since 2003, the over is 10-6 in any NFL game that has a total which closes at 57 or higher. When the home team made the playoffs in the previous season, the over is 9-3 in such games. When both teams made the playoffs in the previous season, it’s 5-2.

 

Colts-Chiefs Prediction

The Colts have had a lot of success in this head-to-head matchup, they are a tough team, and they compete in almost every game, but the Chiefs are on another level right now. I expect this to be a tight game early on, but Kansas City simply has too much firepower and should pull away late. The trends concerning teams losing as favorites the previous week and then struggling as double-digit underdogs jump out at me, and I think the hangover effect of such losses is real. If I’m being honest, I don’t love this game, but I’ll roll with the better team–the one that’s also home and with the offensive ability to separate.

Prediction: Chiefs (-11) over Colts

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