Eagles Have an Uneven History as a Double-Digit Favorite

PHOTO CREDIT: JAMES LANG-USA TODAY SPORTS

There’s no way, I mean no way, the Eagles lose to the Jets this weekend. Can’t happen.

Right?

After all, they enter their Week 5 game against New York at Lincoln Financial Field as a monster 13.5-point favorite. That’s a spread that I would classify as strong to quite strong.

Barring a drastic change in the odds, Sunday will mark the second time this season that the Eagles will be a double-digit favorite—they were a 10-point favorite back in Week 1 against the Redskins—and the eighteenth time they have been favored by 10 or more points dating back to 2004.

The Eagles are currently a -800 moneyline favorite at FOX Bet, equating to an 88.9% implied win probability, while FiveThirtyEight’s ELO model suggests the Eagles have an 81% chance to win.

Still, as we saw during a rough first half against Washington in the opener, no win is guaranteed—not even when Luke Falk (probably) and an 0-3 Jets team that has been outscored by a 33-70 margin are on the opposing sideline.

Here’s some good news for Eagles fans. Teams favored by at least 10 points are 6-0 straight up this season, 38-6 over the past two seasons, and 68-10 over the past three seasons. That is good for an 87.2% win rate over a two-plus year sample.

As for the Eagles, they are 13-4 straight up and 10-7 against the spread dating back to ’04 when favored by 10 or more points.

Here’s the SU and ATS records by coach since that season:

  • Doug Pederson (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)
  • Chip Kelly (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
  • Andy Reid (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS)

Pederson’s Eagles rolled the 49ers and Bears in the midst of the 2017 Super Bowl run, easily covering the big number, while they failed to cover in the Christmas night NFC East clincher against Oakland that season and in this season’s opener.

The Eagles’ performance when favored by 13.5 or more points has been much more shaky. They are a brutal 3-3 straight up when favored by at least 13.5 points, though Pederson did win and cover his lone game in that role.

The most notable of those three losses came back in the Eagles’ 2010 late-season Tuesday night clunker against the Vikings. That loss cost the Eagles a shot at a first-round bye, and it cost Michael Vick a shot at an MVP Award.

You may remember that one as the Joe Webb Game:

The point is, you should feel pretty good about the Eagles’ chances on Sunday, just not too good.

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4 Responses

  1. This is really interesting! Thanks for letting me know!
    Have a great day folks! Enjoy this sunshine.

    – Kate

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