PLEASE TREAD LIGHTLY.

After a really nice run in recent weeks, last weekend was a straight loser. This week’s slate isn’t much easier; had I picked the Saturday matches here, I’d have had two losers (Everton and Watford to win) and a very low-value winner in Chelsea (something like -150.) So this isn’t “don’t play these picks,” but it’s definitely “don’t put a car payment on these picks.”

Onto this week’s (gulp) winners. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook PA, where new users can take advantage of their $500 risk-free bet.

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NEWCASTLE UNITED (+200) v. WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS (+160) — DRAW (+200)

Morale among Newcastle United supporters continues to vacillate between “apathetic” and “red-ass.” Newcastle’s owner, Mike Ashley, is still one of the most loathed men in the north of England, having bought the Magpies in 2007. Whether or not Ashley actually has the sort of money that it would take to return Newcastle to the top of the league (he has said more than once that he doesn’t) matters not to the Toon Army, If Ashley doesn’t have the scratch, they say, he should sell.

It’s never that simple, though. The club remains an enormous asset — somewhere south of $400M, depending on what valuation you believe and the time of day you look it up — and the annual influx of Premier League television revenues essentially ensures that the club will turn a profit year on year as long as it doesn’t get relegated again like it was in 2016. So it’s a sour situation at St James’ Park.

I took Wolves in this space last week over Southampton and felt the cold, wager-losing sting of the draw. In picking Wolves, I noted that it was a pick against Southampton as much as anything. Southampton followed last week’s draw by losing 9-0 at home to Leicester City on Friday night. Sometimes, the read is right but the timing is wrong. That’s the rationale here, anyway, as I take Wolves (again, a week later) to win at +160.

ARSENAL (-210) v. CRYSTAL PALACE (+500) — DRAW (+360)

Hmm…so Arsenal is in fifth place with 15 points, Crystal Palace is one point and one place behind…and the Gunners are -210? Doesn’t that seem a little steep?

It does, until you see that Crystal Palace has already played the three promoted teams (Sheffield United, Aston Villa and Norwich City) and has beaten two of them. That’s almost half of their points from their wins over Villa and Norwich. The Premier League’s balanced schedule means you can’t hide forever: Palace lost to Manchester City last week, has Arsenal this week, then has a nasty three-match run to follow (Leicester, at Chelsea, Liverpool). Oof.

Arsenal at -210 looks to be safe, but this is a value column, so we’re getting creative. (Remember at the top when I said “tread lightly?” I meant it.) Until the Gunners shut out Bournemouth on October 6, they had conceded in six consecutive league matches, with three of those matches played at the Emirates. Crystal Palace isn’t a great side, but they have scored at least once in three of their last four league matches and were denied a penalty at Manchester City last week.

Additionally, the last four league matches between these sides saw both of them score at least once. It’s a bit greedy, but Arsenal to win AND both teams to score at +170 is a good return given the trends.

NORWICH CITY (+330) v. MANCHESTER UNITED (-125) — DRAW (+270)

The hits keep on coming for Manchester United. Fifteenth in the league table, trailing two of the promoted sides (Sheffield and Villa)…now even the seemingly unbeatable records their great sides of the past posted are falling like the rain in Southampton on Friday night.

I cannot pretend to love Norwich in this spot, but I don’t have to think they’ll win the match to make them a good value. Norwich has been pretty terrible on the road (four losses and a draw), but they have won twice at home (including the minor miracle against Manchester City.) Their recent form is bad, but then again so is United’s. Each of these sides has gone four turns through the league calendar without a win.

Norwich has been potent at home, with nine goals scored in four league matches at Carrow Road thus far. If the Canaries score twice against United, you might favor them to win. A bit of conservatism will play better, though. Take Norwich Double Chance at -110.

Good luck on Sunday.