Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Prediction: Odds and Picks

notre dame navy betting prediction, odds, pick

No. 16 Notre Dame and No. 21 Navy will meet as ranked opponents for the first time since the 1978 season on Saturday afternoon in South Bend as the Fighting Irish look to keep alive their faint hopes of playing in a New Year’s Six bowl. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen look to continue their impressive 2019 rebound following a three-win campaign a year ago. You can get in on the action of this game at the top Indiana online sports betting sites, but before you do, let’s take a look at what you need to know with our Notre Dame vs. Navy betting predictions and preview.

Navy, which is, rather amazingly, seeking its first six-game winning streak in the same season since the late 1970s, will bring the nation’s most prolific rushing attack to South Bend on Saturday afternoon, but will do so in front of a less than capacity crowd. This game will mark the first time in 273 games that Notre Dame Stadium won’t be sold out. The last time the Fighting Irish didn’t play in front of a sold out home crowd? That would be Thanksgiving Day of 1973.

Those in attendance will get an up close look at the Midshipmen’s triple option offense that is producing more than 358 yards per game on the ground this season while averaging less than eight passing attempts per game. The Notre Dame defense, which is allowing 155.6 rushing yards per game, will need to play disciplined assignment football if they are to win for the eighth time in the last nine matchups between these two teams.

How to Bet on Notre Dame vs. Navy


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How to Watch Notre Dame vs. Navy

  • Date: Saturday, November 16
  • Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
  • Location: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, IN)
  • Network: NBC
  • Announcers: Mike Tirico (play-by-play), Doug Flutie (analyst), Chris Simms (analyst), Kathryn Tappen (sideline)

Notre Dame vs. Navy Weather

It’s going to be a cold one at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday afternoon with temperatures in the upper 30s around kickoff under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are expected to sit in the mid 30s through the fourth quarter, while winds from the east will blow between 7-8 mph.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Odds

Here are the current Notre Dame vs. Navy betting odds at some of the top legal sportsbooks as of early Saturday morning:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Navy       +7.5 (-115)      +225   O 55 (-110)
Notre Dame        -7.5 (-106)      -286   U 55 (-110)


      Spread     Money        Total
Navy       +7 (+100)      +230   O 55 (-110)
Notre Dame       -7 (-118)     -275   U 55 (-110)


Win Probability

With Notre Dame favored by roughly a touchdown this afternoon, let’s look at this game from a different angle by using ESPN’s FPI model.

Simply put, we like to do this because we feel that it’s often worth a look to compare the implied probability of the moneyline odds with a second source in order to see if any betting value exists.

As for this game, ESPN’s FPI index gives Notre Dame a strong 84% win probability over Navy.

In relation to the Fighting Irish’s win probability, the -286 moneyline odds (74.1% implied win probability) at DraftKings Sportsbook mean that there is some moneyline value on Notre Dame.

As for Navy, there’s no value on the Midshipmen at +225 moneyline odds (30.8% implied win probability) when stacked against the FPI projection. 

Notre Dame vs. Navy Injury Report

Notre Dame 

Running back Tony Jones Jr. is expected to play against Navy despite nursing a rib injury, but Notre Dame received bad news earlier this week when it was announced DE Julian Okwara, a potential first-round pick, would miss the remainder of the season with a fractured Fibula. Okwara, who has registered 12 sacks since the start of last season, suffered the injury late in the first half of Notre Dame’s win at Duke.

Linebacker Jack Lamb (hip) is also out for the season, while wide receivers Braden Lenzy and Joe Wilkins are both questionable.


Navy comes in relatively healthy with a short injury report. Inside linebacker Tama Tuitele has missed the last two games and is questionable today.

Recommended Bets

There are some solid boosts and promo offers out there for this matchup between two Top 25 squads. Over at FOX Bet, you can grab the following bet boosts:

  • Both teams to score in every quarter (+500)
  • Between 53-56 total points (+600)
  • Final Score: Notre Dame 28, Navy 21 (+10000)
  • Each team to score 1+ TD and 1+ FG in each half (+550)

Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Minnesota each to win has been boosted to +310.

Five Things to Know

  1. Navy has not beaten a ranked Notre Dame team since 2009 when the Midshipmen scored a 23-21 win in South Bend.
  2. At 93 meetings, the Navy-Notre Dame rivalry is the longest, continuous, intersectional rivalry in college football.
  3. Navy last beat a ranked opponent in 2016 when it knocked off No. 6 Houston. Since the 2005 season, Navy is only 4-16 against ranked opponents.
  4. Brian Kelly’s Notre Dame teams are 10-4 as a favorite against ranked opponents and 7-2 at home against ranked opponents.
  5. If Navy is to score the upset, quarterback Malcolm Perry (157 carries, 1,042 yards, 6.6 ypc) will lead the way. While Perry, who has eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing in each of the last three seasons, hasn’t chucked it too often through eight games (only 53 attempts), he has thrown for 722 yards (13.6 yards per attempt). Here he is in action:

Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2005 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing Notre Dame is a Good Bet

Notre Dame is 10-4 ATS against ranked opponents as a favorite under Brian Kelly and 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.

The home team is 16-7-1 ATS in matchups between ranked opponents when favored by exactly seven points and 56-39-1 ATS when favored between 6-8 points.

The home team is 23-14 ATS in matchups between opponents ranked No. 11 or lower when favored between 6-8 points.

Why Backing Navy is a Good Bet

Notre Dame is only 2-9 ATS as a home favorite in the month of November under Kelly.

Navy hasn’t just been good SU this season at 7-1–they are also 6-2 ATS.

A Word on the Total

The under is 42-26 in Notre Dame home games coached by Kelly and 26-17 when the total is at least 53 points.

The over has hit in five of Navy’s eight contests this year.

Where’s the Action?

As noted above, the spread and total have remained consistent throughout the week. As of 9 a.m. Saturday morning, 53% of spread bets and 49% of spread money backs Navy, while 50% of bets and 56% of the money is on the over.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction

There should be some concern for Notre Dame bettors today about this point spread. It opened at Notre Dame -10 across several books, but has since shrunk to -7 or -7.5 with the midweek money flowing in on Navy. Still, Kelly’s teams have performed well at home against ranked opponents, and the Fighting Irish have the superior roster on both sides.

For me, the biggest concern remains motivation. At 7-1, Navy is in the midst of a special season and this would be a statement win, while Notre Dame is likely headed for the Camping World Bowl after entering the season with championship aspirations.

Also problematic is that Notre Dame has struggled to keep elite rushing teams in check this season. Georgia, USC, Michigan, and Louisville have each gashed this thinning defensive front.

Ultimately, I think we’ve seen this line move to the point where there’s actually some value on the side of Notre Dame. After a sluggish start, I think the Fighting Irish pull away far enough to cover the spread late.

Note: If you expect a low-scoring game ultimately won by Notre Dame, you can grab the Fighting Irish outright with the under at +160 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Prediction: Notre Dame (-7) over Navy

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