The Steelers will look to rebound from a tough road loss and the late-game Mason Rudolph/Myles Garrett saga that went down in Cleveland last week when they take on the winless Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Can Pittsburgh’s struggling offense get on track against a woeful Bengals defense, or will Cincinnati pull off the upset to earn its first win of the year? Let’s get into it with our Steelers vs. Bengals betting prediction and preview.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, the Steelers enter this week’s contest with only 29% odds of reaching the postseason, but those odds could change in a hurry. With games against the Bengals, Browns, and Cardinals looming (three teams with a combined 7-23-1 record), the Steelers can and probably should find themselves in the thick of the AFC playoff picture over the season’s final weeks. They, however, have little margin for error if they’re going to make a run and can ill afford a loss to a dreadful Bengals team that is running out of opportunities to avoid an embarrassing winless season.

How to Bet on Steelers vs. Bengals

Pennsylvania

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We like FOX Bet PA because of its $20 sign-up bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab here.

DraftKings Sportsbook PA, which went live in Pennsylvania earlier this month, is offering new users a generous $200 first-bet match available right here.

Indiana

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New Jersey

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How to Watch Steelers vs. Bengals

  • Date: Sunday, November 24
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)
  • Network: CBS
  • Announcers: Andrew Catalon (play-by-play), James Lofton (analyst) & Jim Schriffen (sideline)
  • Radio: 102.5 WDVE & WBGG 970 AM (Pittsburgh), 102.7 WEBN, 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati)

Steelers vs. Bengals Weather

The weather on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati will be seasonably cool with temperatures expected in the low 40s under partly cloudy skies at kickoff. Temperatures will climb into the mid 40s by the fourth quarter with WSW winds blowing between 10-12 mph. In other words, the weather isn’t expected to play much of a factor.

Steelers vs. Bengals Odds

Here are the current Steelers vs. Bengals betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 5:00 p.m. Saturday afternoon:

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Steelers       -6 (-110)      -275   O 37.5 (-110)
Bengals       +6 (-110)      +225   U 37.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Steelers      -6 (-110)      -275   O 37.5 (-110)
Bengals      +6 (-110)     +225   U 37.5 (-110)

Win Probability

Let’s check out FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it stacks up with current legal sportsbook odds.

We think it’s a worthwhile exercise to evaluate multiple sources for pronounced disparities between the betting odds and projection models in search of potential betting value.

The ELO projection model has the Steelers at -8.5 and with a 77% win probability. With Pittsburgh -6 currently at most sportsbooks, the ELO projection suggests there’s about 2.5 points of betting value on the Steelers.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of DraftKings’ -275 moneyline odds on the Steelers is 73.3%, which means that the moneyline price is less expensive than what the ELO projection would suggest (-330 would be in line with a 77% win probability).

As for the Bengals, the implied win probability of their +225 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 30.8%, meaning there is no value on their moneyline price.

Steelers vs. Bengals Injury Report

Steelers Injury Report

The Steelers have struggled to score points in recent weeks and that could be the case again on Sunday given they will be without two of their key offensive weapons. Running back James Conner (shoulder) and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion/knee) are both out.

In Conner’s absence, Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels, and Trey Edmunds are expected to shoulder the load.

Defensively, the Steelers will be without cornerback Artie Burns (knee), who was injured in the Steelers’ loss at Cleveland last week.

Bengals Injury Report

The Bengals’ injury report is relatively short. Wide receiver A.J. Green will once again be out, but fellow wideout Auden Tate (concussion) looks on track to play.

Three Things to Know

  • The Pittsburgh offense is averaging just 283.5 yards per game (28th), 4.84 yards per pass (27th), 80.7 rush yards per game (27th), 202.28 passing yards per game (27th), and has a combined 36.4 QBR (28th). Just awful.
  • Bengals quarterback Ryan Finley has been flat-out bad since taking over for Andy Dalton. He’s completing only 41.9% of his pass attempts at 4.6 yards per attempt on his way to compiling a 21.8 QBR:

  • Pittsburgh’s defense has been outstanding, while, well, Cincinnati’s has not been outstanding. The Steelers defense has been a top 10 unit in yards per play (4th), net yards per pass attempt (5th), and rush yards allowed per attempt (5th). Meanwhile, the Bengals are 32nd in yards per play and net yards per pass attempt as well as 29th in rush yards allowed per attempt. The 1,670 rushing yards they have surrendered thus far is the most in the NFL.

Recommended Bets

DraftKings Sportsbook continues to run its Offensive Defense promo this week. This promo gives those who lose a pregame moneyline bet up to a $25 refund if their team scores 24+ points but still goes on to lose.

FOX Bet doesn’t have any special offers on the Steelers-Bengals game, but is offering a super boost on the Eagles to cover +3.5 at +100 odds as part of its 9 Days of Thanksgiving promo. From now through next weekend, FOX Bet will be running daily odds boosts and special offers for both new and current users.

Steelers vs. Bengals Prop Bet We Like

Steelers running back Jaylen Samuels to Score a Touchdown (-125)

Samuels figures to receive the bulk of carries with James Conner out of the lineup. When Conner missed two games earlier this month, Samuels hauled in 16 passes for 84 yards and added 39 yards on 22 carries. Obviously, his yards per rush wasn’t very good, but those performances came against the terrific run-stuffing defensive fronts of the Colts and Rams. Samuels goes up against a generous Bengals defense ranked 21st in DVOA’s run defense rankings. I think he finds the end zone for the first time since late September when he scored against–you guessed it–the Bengals.

Steelers vs. Bengals Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the Steelers is a Good Bet

Series Dominance

The Steelers are 23-10 ATS overall and 13-3 ATS on the road against the Bengals since the 2003 season.

Revenge Isn’t Easy

AFC North home underdogs that lost the previous head-to-head matchup by double digits are 24-34-2 ATS and 4-9 ATS when an underdog of 6-8 points. Such teams are only 1-4 ATS when losing the previous head-to-head matchup by 24 points or more.

The Bengals Have Been Brutal at Home

The Bengals are 1-9 ATS over their last 10 home games.

Why Backing the Bengals is a Good Bet

So Bad They’re…Good?

Teams with a .100 record or worse are 3-1 ATS as a home underdog when losing the previous head-to-head matchup by 24 points or more in November or later.

The Steelers Struggle to Cover Against Bad Teams

The Steelers can rise to the occasion with the best of them, but they’re not particularly good against bad teams–especially later in the season–under Mike Tomlin. In fact, they are only 8-16-1 ATS against teams under .500 in his tenure during the months of November and December, including 4-9-1 ATS in these two months since the start of the 2014 season.

They’re Simply Due

The Bengals remain the NFL’s only winless team, but the Steelers’ offensive deficiencies were on full display a week ago in Cleveland. Without Conner and Smith-Schuster, it’s hard to imagine a depleted Pittsburgh offense led by a mediocre Mason Rudolph building a huge lead and running away with this one.

A Word on the Total

The under is 7-3 in both teams’ 10 games this season, but the over is 3-1 in one the Bengals’ four home games.

The over is 107-80-2 in division games played in November or later when the total is set between 37.5-39 points and 8-4 in AFC North games.

Where’s the Action?

As of 5 p.m. Saturday afternoon, 52% of spread bets but only 42% of the spread handle backs the Steelers, while only 15% of bets and 20% of the money is on the over.

Steelers vs. Bengals Prediction

History has shown that late-season division games with extremely low totals tend to go over the total. It’s difficult to imagine these two teams doing much of anything on offense, but I’m going to roll with that trend and play the over. Cincinnati’s defense has been atrocious, and I expect a mix of careless football and opportunistic offense to push this over the 37.5 total.

As for the game, I’m giving the nod to the Steelers to win outright because of their superior defense, but their history of struggles covering the spread against bad teams is a problem for me–as is their suspect offense. I’m staying away from the spread in this one and simply grabbing the over.

Note: If you’re looking to bet on the Steelers, but would like to eliminate the point spread from the equation while also avoiding expensive moneyline prices, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the Steelers to win outright with the over and the Steelers to win outright with the under at +160 odds.

Prediction: Steelers and Bengals Over 37.5 points